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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5324)	4/8/2001 10:59:23 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

My comments from Friday By L3_Aka_L3 on Saturday, April 07, 2001 - 12:04 pm: Edit Site updated for now. I will be shuffling stocks around dropping some and adding others as time goes by. I already dropped FDRY and added HGT which I sold HGT this week in my kid's account. Nice 30% dividend but I got a weekly sell on it and the COT shows the big money is starting to short Natural Gas futures. It does have a nice ascending bullish triangle but I have to follow my signals. While I am bullish longer term on Gas, the slowdown, summer etc may provide a dip for a better entry down the road. I don't expect to stay out of it very long as the high dividend is the safest money I see for the near term. I don't have them shown here but SJT and BPT are in the same league as HGT. The US Dollar has a weekly sell, bearish engulfing candle and the Bond looks like it could get a panic buy soon. This all coupled with a weak looking tech index despite most stocks looking like they are near bottom is hinting that either QCOM, MSFT or some other heavy weight may drag things down even if most of the other stocks behave. The SOX finally showed some weakness Friday so things are pretty much going as planned here thus far. If anyone has found some good stocks that show potential, let me know and I might add them. I am suspecting the JNPRs, BRCDs, PMCSs etc may not be the place to be for the next year or so since even if things turn around, there is going to be some long term base building required before they do much. With Breadth improving, there has to be some stocks out there that are doing better and may lead the next leg up. BWDIK. JEC has been a great one but it has a possible 3 peaks and a dome, potential double top and so I am staying away for now. So far, no irreversable damage was done Friday. We didn't exceed the fibonacci retrace numbers from Thursday's advance, gap support held etc but the SOX was very weak, QCOM is now under support so it now has resistance immediately in front and we are still in confession season. I am hoping for a day three advance Monday to get out of at least half my remaining longs. While many of the charts show last week's lows might hold, they also show that most will be retested. Zilchputtt - Good article. Elaine Gazarelli and so many others keep trying to apply bull market metrics to this bear market I don't understand how they call themselves professionals. We are in a bear and the rules change. We can stay over sold just like we stayed over bought in the bull for long periods. Measures like the VIX, TRIN, VXN and negative TICK are trending upwards so each new low requires a higher reading before a reversal can be expected etc. These talking heads keep trying to use old measures for a new market which disgustes me. I am not ruling out a bear rally here and there as we have said many times but a quick resumption of the bull market won't happen for months if not years. The bull was 18 years long so history shows this bear could last 4-6 years. I actually started counting April 1998 despite the indexes going higher since that was when the advance decline, McCellen Oscillator etc all went to pieces. That said, I doubt we head up too fast before 2003. Of course sometime before then , we will get a wave four countertrend rally that could retrace 38% of the big drop which will be huge and sucker a lot of longs in. That will prove to be the second best shorting opportunity of the decade. My COT link is locked out for the first two weeks since I am not a subcriber but I read elsewhere that the SPX futures had a drop of 5000 shorts which is bullish ( 50K+ still are short though) but NASDAQ futures had an INCREASE in shorts last week. Good Luck, Lee ============================== Comments on my stock search....... Looking through charts and there isn't much to replace things with here. Murphy oil (MUR), some oil refineries like TOS, UDS and VLO maybe. An old one I used to trade called COO and maybe SBH. Everything else that is up doesn't look like it wants to go up much more and many are looking like they are about to implode. I might just leave things alone for a while longer until I get better candidates. Maybe we can get that bounce and use these old ones for short candidates. ========================================================= From: Temple Williams Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 7:29 PM Respond to of 91476 Last Saturday, I wrote "the market should poke a hole higher early on Monday [which it did], and then start a reversal which fails to reach new lows [what it did]. The market then goes higher, BEFORE the new round of failure appears [what it's doing now.] A classic tree-shaking ceremony heading north, loaded with bear scares, extending into the second week of April [which is this week]. In the past week, I have not changed my mind much from last Saturday's post. Although I now think the move higher may extend beyond this week. Here's my most recent commentary, and a chart which visualizes it: The Preferred Series continues building the structure of a s/t correction higher, in a bear market. Although I currently project this as a horizontal, ascending triangle, peaking above 1227.00 Cash SPX on the 23rd or 24th of April, I realize that it could be a more traditional move that pinpricks above 1200.00 Cash SPX in the middle of this week, and then reverses for a run at the basement. I still see the bottom of the market at around 1030.00 Cash SPX in the middle of May. But if we reverse for a run at the lows this week, instead of on the 23rd or 24th of April, then the low might be closer to 1000.00. That is a launching pad, not to all-time highs (which I currently believe are years away), but rather to good gains by September or October ... gains which challenge the old highs and run into the psychological brick wall of "I have been given a second chance, and I'm getting out while the getting's good." That investor psychology will remain, I believe, an insurmountable obstacle to all-time highs. Here's a chart covering the next few weeks ... trade safe. sellnow.net ==========================================================

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5324)	4/8/2001 12:22:45 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The unemployment numbers got all the press on Friday because they're easier to sensationalize. But the consumer credit numbers are MORE chilling in their own way. Here's another reason to short-and-hold the Dow. dismal.com "All the strength came in the revolving category. Credit card debt surged at a nearly 20% annualized pace. This is the fastest pace of growth since December 1995 and followed double-digit annualized growth in January... It is reasonable to surmise that many households are ... drawing down their credit lines to make ends meet in the face of rising layoffs and falling hours worked ... Thus some segments of the population may be in more financial trouble than a casual glance at the aggregate statistics might indicate ... Such households may have to pull back on spending in coming months. In this case, the surge in borrowing today may be a harbinger of much weaker spending ... in the coming months."