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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Kern who wrote (24453)	4/8/2001 12:04:45 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

Paul, not negative growth...lower growth. Take a look at this report from ECRI, where they define a recession as "two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product." techtv.com Then have a look at earnings forecast from IBES. dynamic.nasdaq.com Excerpts: <For five consecutive quarters, dating back to 3Q99, the S&P 500 was producing earnings growth hovering in the 20% range. Given the momentum, it is clear analyst optimism was greater than warranted, and that optimism increased the severity of the consensus free-fall. The severe confession season, while impacting 4Q00 growth expectations, has also taken its toll on 2001 growth expectations for both the S&P 500 and the I/B/E/S universe. Year 2001 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 stands at 6.5%, down from 9.2% last month, while growth expectations for the I/B/E/S universe are now 12.6%, down from 16.6% last month. Consensus earnings forecasts for 2001 have declined 3.5% over the past month for the I/B/E/S universe, continuing its downward spiral of 8.7% and 11.3% over the past three and six months, respectively. The consensus movements within the S&P 500 have not fared much better, with 2001 earnings expectations down 2.7% over the past month and decreases of 7.4% and 10.3% over three and six months, respectively. >