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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (67356)	4/8/2001 12:13:13 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116927

<This revenue base will remain sustained until we see greater unemployment> We are seeing the January and February numbers and announcements already look bad. I'm predicting March and April will be shocking. I'm basing this on anecdotal evidence as a large apartment operator (worker bee clientele) in the Pacific Northwest. We have seen an inordinate number of "vacate without proper notices" this month. I've confirmed this trend with other property managers. To top off this disturbing development we had a two hour blackout Thursday morning that affected 200,000 households. This has rarely happened in this region because of strong employment and housing markets. In connecting the dots with my managers, we are hearing sudden layoffs. This population typically lives paycheck to paycheck, and since most are responsible it is better to clear out than be evicted for non payment. I would suspect the situation is as bad or worse in the even larger but similar California economy. I think we are in freefall. I think this will show up in the payroll reciepts in the first quarter and will really kick in this quarter.