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To: jim black who wrote (2958)	4/8/2001 2:20:47 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

I kept thinking about the issue after posting and realized we are talking about (yet again another) human endevour, that will present us with the fact of diminishing returns. Its indicative that the human race got that far that we are faced with diseases in a form of single SNPs (methionin replacement in pryon protein for instance). And all the time since Flemming procaryotes have been busily studying and learning the tricks of the antibiotics. If there is only coupla thousand proteins of immediate medical interest in human genome - just quoting off my head from the Venter's Science number - then they (meaning microbes) should just subscribe to Celera's bank and go after our transcription mechanism. Maybe we should all dump Carbon for Silicon (g). Making technical fun, because Im afraid of moral issues surfacing all over the place.

To: jim black who wrote (2958)	4/8/2001 3:10:35 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 74559

Jim...I tend to share your view on the pharmaceutical industry. Health care costs will be skyrocketing this year, and the leading component of that is pharmacy benefit costs. There is a limit to what payors will stand for, and unless a new drug shows both a superior clinical profile and a cost benefit, it will be less likely to reach the market than has been our past experience. Regards Patron

To: jim black who wrote (2958)	4/8/2001 4:52:56 PM
From: George K.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Interesting comments Jim but would the analysis apply to a cure say for a very high profile disease in which there would be huge sales and the payors could rest assured that they would save on not having to treat costly symptoms or life prolonging treatments, etc. I certainly can see that there will be very little cost/benefit on rare diseases if the development costs are so high. Geo.