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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (35264)	4/9/2001 12:40:07 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, And AMD's lousy performance at introducing Palomino is hurting every day they miss. And AMD's holding "back" faster Athlons due to poor PIV performance is unbelievable stupidity if true. Agreed. If they have say 1.466 GHz Palomino, why not release it NOW and price it at $500, assuring demand will not get ahead of supply while supply is constrained (anyway, why should the supply be constrained?) Overall AMD would have been better off warning and then beating the numbers. Now they are going to get killed again if they have "lied" by not warning. But you are assuming that they will miss. The estimates are not that high at 33 cents. Just FYI, these were the results of last 4 quarters: Q1 2000 0.29 Q2 2000 0.57 Q3 2000 0.62 Q4 2000 0.55 Joe

To: kash johal who wrote (35264)	4/9/2001 2:09:51 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

kash, re:"AMD will miss" When I heard AMD's estimates were dropped by Dan Niles I was concerned. He dropped his 2001 estimate from $1.90 (one of the highest) to $1.25 (one of the lowest). But my recollection is that he did not reduce his Q1 estimates by much. If the flash contracts are structured so that they can decline in price by X% per quarter (a "collar" similar to the futures markets), then Q1 might not even show a decline in flash revenues. Dan Nile's reductions were attributed mostly to the flash biz, as I suspect he calculated flash earnings assuming that the contract prices drop by the collar limit in each succeeding quarter of 2001. Petz

To: kash johal who wrote (35264)	4/9/2001 2:27:42 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kashy, RE:"And AMD's holding "back" faster Athlons due to poor PIV performance is unbelievable stupidity if true." If that's true it would stupid as usual. Some people will make up any excuse for AMD. RE:"Overall AMD would have been better off warning and then beating the numbers. Now they are going to get killed again if they have "lied" by not warning" Seems to me that AMD is already getting killed. Stock down 1/3 in a few weeks. I don't know if "not warning" is "lying" but I seriously doubt Jerry would not warn if he knew they would miss big. (In light of lawuits) The devil might be in the details or what is said going forward. Jim