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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (123271)	4/9/2001 2:48:41 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

yes, i do think so. we are imo at the onset of the 'winter season' of the Kondratyev Longwave, which comes after the disinflationary 'autumn' (the period of '81 - roughly now) and invariably is characterized by outright deflation. even the current cyclical uptick in inflationary pressures is consistent with the theory, it is referred to as the 'false spring'. << Ok i've thought about this and have mentioned it to serval people in private. This is the long term cycle wave that changes every 40 to 50 yrs. I know there's something going on here that is really weird and i'm trying to make since out of this and that could be it. But i wouldn't bet that the US will follow the way Japan has. Maybe that's why the Fed has moved quickly and along with tax cuts. Right now we have interest rates going lower and a steeping yield curve. Isn't not this good for the stock market and economy even though it may be early?