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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marek_wojna who wrote (67445)	4/9/2001 5:08:13 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116791

<I'm convinced that "You are your own worst enemy" fits most of the gold companies. > For sure forward selling is not helping the short term price of gold, but over the long run, this is a zero sum game as they will eventually payback from future production, this will limit the gold available to satisfy fabrication demand thefore causing price to rise balancing the equation. The real damage to the gold market is done by the gold carry trade players. Those who borrow gold, sell it on the market and invest in US financial instruments. This is not a zero sum game as the gold that has been really sold short is no longer available and will have to be purchased back on the market.

To: marek_wojna who wrote (67445)	4/10/2001 6:32:08 AM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

Anybody thinks $200 or $100 or $50/oz will help? Indian Urban Gold Demand Set to Contract: Bank Analyst PERTH, April 10 Asia Pulse - Gold demand in India is unlikely to grow beyond current levels, even though India has long held the position as the world's largest market for gold, Kamal Naqvi, a metals analyst at Macquarie Bank, said yesterday. While "base" demand load for gold (and silver) from rural areas, which accounts for around 70 per cent of Indian gold demand, should continue to grow in line with agricultural income and population growth, the urban sector is showing signs of contraction in gold demand. Mr Naqvi told delegates at the Australian Gold Conference in Perth that the trend was likely to continue, if not accelerate. "We believe that Indian gold demand has plateaued, although there is a marked divergence between market segments and sociological sectors across India." He said said demographic changes, urbanisation and income growth in Indian cities had resulted in a large rise in single-family housing, leading to a change of priorities for any spare cash. Growing financial sophistication had also encouraged people to move into more modern investments such as equities, bonds and insurance, as well as private goods such as mobile phones and cars. As a result, it had reduced the need and desire for Indians to buy a large amount of gold, Mr Naqvi said, adding that the young urban generation was increasingly westernised and did not view gold in such a position of prestige. "The result of this is that gold jewellery consumption in the urban sector, particularly in the upper income bracket, is already contracting and this will continue. "Falling gold demand from this segment is likely to offset growth in the rural sector." Mr Naqvi said there was also a strong desire to reduce the level of gold imports at the official level. "Overall, the message for the gold industry from India, its largest consumer, is that there is no collapse imminent but there are few signs of growth either." In contrast, Western countries are the lowest consumers of gold jewellery as a proportion of their income. But Mr Naqvi said that if gold promotion to western consumers could succeed in increasing, even only slightly, the spending on gold as a percentage of income in countries such as the USA and Germany, then the impact on the physical gold market would be significant. George Milling Stanley from the World Gold Council was today more optimistic about Indian demand, predicting demand for gold jewellery would move above 1,000 tonnes a year in 2005. But he also stressed that industry self-promotion was necessary to boost demand. "Can the the gold industry increase demand by its own efforts?" he asked. "My response to that simple question is yes. And now is the time for the industry to see what it can really achieve if it works together to improve the demand for its product. "I believe there is no reason why this industry cannot increase the demand for gold by 50 per cent over the next five years." This would bring total demand by the year 2005 to around 6,000 tonnes. Mr Milling-Stanley said effective promotion helps sell gold "just as it does for every other product." ASIA PULSE