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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (123306)	4/9/2001 6:51:40 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

i don't think the bureaucrats at the Fed have a better crystal ball than we have. in the early 30's, the Fed and the administration were positive all the way down. they HAVE to be, otherwise they'd practically admit to their policy failures, and they'll never do that. as for the economy, i expect that we will see several recessions, interrupted by anemic recoveries...very similar to what Japan has gone through (though different in some aspects). the stock market will gyrate through this like a ball bouncing downstairs...we should get some pretty spectacular rallies, but i believe a longer term downtrend is now firmly in place. the problem as i see it is that the economy has barely begun to shake out the excesses and imbalances that have accumulated throughout the boom. the Fed has no magic wand that can change the facts overnight. this downturn is unlike any other witnessed since WW2... more on this some other time.