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To: yard_man who wrote (92053)	4/9/2001 10:59:12 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

There are not that many events outside the 2 std band. It looks that way because they are obvious. You have to remember that you are looking at years of daily data. The MA is what's telling. Again, I think volume just skews it and see no argument for including it. What's it telling us? Among other things, the most important may be that increasing volatility after some period of stability tells us that a powerful move is beginning and at some point, that it's about to come apart. After the bottom, volatility again decreases enormously.

To: yard_man who wrote (92053)	4/9/2001 11:31:23 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

This was just e-mailed to me by someone who saw my volatility charts. It's excellent and answers some of your questions: zealllc.com

To: yard_man who wrote (92053)	4/10/2001 9:15:43 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

Another point about those volatility charts: Every single good bull run out of a low has been associated with steadily decreasing volatility. It's very reliable. At the low after a decline, the volatility hits a peak and then for years it declines. At the first next spike in volatility, the market will go on to make a higher high, could be as much as a year or two later, but eventually, the market will break to the downside and the volatility will again peak as the market slides.