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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (5424)	4/10/2001 10:09:25 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Jri, >>>> I still believe some big boys play this game (buy futures) to light a fire under the market....It makes sense....they all know that traders look at technical levels...we are close to triggering some technical "buys".....it is a relatively low-cost execution (also, buying lots of 100 shares in pre-market on some key stocks).....that we here are at a make-or-break point (do we go up or down?)...of course, it does get one excited when the futures are up big in the morning ("here comes the rally!")... <<<< I normally prefer to shy away from subjective issues, since there is really no analytical way to support it. So I basicly ignore subjective issues, of course there are exceptions like economic news/etc. So lets specificly talk about gaps. I am not aware or the statistical merit of assuming that up-gaps should be followed immediately by a sell-off, not saying that it cant happen. I looked at the upgaps during this downtrend since SEPT, and it appears there are more cases where there is follow-thru than immediate sell-off, but not enough repeats of these patterns to say it is statistically viable. My guess though, is that in an uptrend an up-gapped is probably followed-thru to some degree than not, and I see anything statistically viable to negate that assumption in a downtrend. The NAZ/NDX did clearly break above the JAN declining trendline this morning, whether it holds or not, I dont know but until it breaks back below that trendline it should be interpreted as a positive not a negative. I didnt say it was a definite positive, since I would want confirmation, just that it should be interpreted as a POSITIVE HINT, until it is negated and should not be ignored. As for the short-term and on a intraday basis the NDX just entered the overbought region per my short-term technicals. As mentioned previously I will be adding shorts today, if it closes near/at the highs, to establish some hedged positions. I wont close my longs yet, just start to hedge them. Once I get CLASS sell signals, which could be as early as tomorrow I will then close my longs and be strictly short. JRI, you may have the right idea, just a little early.