Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (45300)	4/10/2001 12:29:24 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottried, Good charts. Thanks. It does appear that it's becoming more difficult for cycle moves to scare folks out of their long positions. AMAT could indeed be a "safe stock" here if investors can hold their ground. To date, they've been pretty strong IMO. Still, I think we have a little more downside risk than upside in the short haul. However, I doubt you'll see me initiate a short play under $40 unless something really significant happens. BTW, I'm glad you didn't go sailing today. I was getting worried with today's rally. AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (45300)	4/10/2001 5:51:06 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

G, . Retracement from the peak is less and less I am not sure I follow your premise. This cycle AMAT dropped 70%+(from 115 to 34), while in '96 and 98 the drops were no more than 60%. BK

To: Gottfried who wrote (45300)	4/10/2001 5:51:15 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G, . Retracement from the peak is less and less I am not sure I follow your premise. This cycle AMAT dropped 70%+(from 115 to 34), while in '96 and 98 the drops were no more than 60%. BK

To: Gottfried who wrote (45300)	4/10/2001 11:04:09 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The other thing is, this downturn has different causes than the last 2 downturns. I look for patterns constantly, as you do, but maybe it is different this time. Does anyone remember what a recession is like? Did the semi industry even exist the last time we had a real recession? Unfortunately, I don't think 1996 and 1998 is going to tell us much about the current downturn (depth or duration). But, if I look at enough graphs, I'm sure I'll see a pattern, even if I have to imagine it.