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To: Ron Dior who wrote (7672)	4/11/2001 4:09:25 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10934

How do I know that? I don't, I'm guessing, just like you. But this downturn is not at all like 1998. 1998 was a liquidity crisis, which could be fixed quickly by the right government intervention. The fix worked, and the markets rapidly rebounded. The current downturn is caused by too much debt, and too much capacity. In the end, capital equipment has to be paid for out of cash flow. U.S. corporations have been living beyond their means, and piling up debt, to fund their expansion, for many years. There is no quick fix for that. The only fix is to lower the debt of consumers, companies, and some governments. That means less consumption by consumers, and less capital spending by companies. EMC has recently lowered their revenue growth guidance, from 35% to 20%. This is a direct result of the realization by every company in the Fortune 500, that spending has to be cut back. You said, "we are overreacting to the downside now you feel that we couldn't possibly overreact to the upside? This stock could as easily go back to its old highs as it came down from them." This is what I mean, when I talk about the surreal tone of so many posts on this thread. We are not overreacting to the downside. At about 15-20, we are fairly valued. Undervalued won't be unless the stock gets to the 5-10 area. The stock hit 152 almost exactly 6 months ago. Do you really think there is any chance the stock could be back there 6 months from now!? 1925-1929, and 1998-2000, are rare events. The aftermath from them is so painful, that investors who went through them, have to die off, before the market is willing to do it again. It takes that long for memories to fade. So, as a rough guess, you're going to have to wait about 50 years before stocks reach the valuations you saw last year.