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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (35424)	4/11/2001 8:46:50 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

dale laroy: "I would say that this would be very good news for AMD. If Intel gets this serious about ramping production of P4, a processor shortage will develop. After all, Intel is probably sacrificing at least 3 P-III processors for every P4 they are shipping. Thus to produce one third of the number of P4 processors as they currently are P-III processors they would need to devote their entire existing 0.18-micron capacity to P4 production. Even if they add 50% to their capacity by the end of the year, they will be producing only 84% of their current volume in processors." Don't see any holes in your overview at all...unless it is once again the assumption that INTC will succeed with its some-time-in-the-future-if-ever launching in any volume of a 1.2 gig P4 in June...(It amazes me, after the past 12 month track record of "beached" promises by INTC, that the public remains so willing to accept as a given the notion that INTC somehow will meet its continuing stream of promises of future performance at a competitive level with the Athy!!! My guess is that AMD is waiting in the bushes for some here-and-now tangible evidence that INTC can produce a competitive product in quantity, at which time AMD will once again neutralize any narrowing of the performance gap by introducing yet another leading edge product (i.e here comes the palomino family of processors)

To: dale_laroy who wrote (35424)	4/11/2001 12:03:05 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Dale, I would say that this would be very good news for AMD. If Intel gets this serious about ramping production of P4, a processor shortage will develop. After all, Intel is probably sacrificing at least 3 P-III processors for every P4 they are shipping. Thus to produce one third of the number of P4 processors as they currently are P-III processors they would need to devote their entire existing 0.18-micron capacity to P4 production. Even if they add 50% to their capacity by the end of the year, they will be producing only 84% of their current volume in processors. I don't see any shortages whatsoever on any Intel .18u products. Intel may be sitting of on several months worth of Piii/Celerons (in die form) in inventory. There is no way a shortage of these products will develop. Joe