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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (35648)	4/11/2001 11:45:01 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Top Of The News: Bear Bait Rally Wednesday April 11, 10:30 am Eastern Time Forbes.com By Dan Ackman <<The Angel of Gloom passed over Wall Street yesterday, his soothing words to investors sparking a rally that left the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 10,000 for the first time since March 15. That was almost a month ago, farther back than most traders could recall. The Easter Bunny also played a role-- as the Nasdaq climbed even faster, rising by 106 points, or 6%. Some traders were said to be cautious still, but others are already saying that caution is for losers. "Everybody who wanted to sell has sold," says Bill Meehan, chief market analyst for Cantor Fitzgerald. All the bad news over the last quarter is already priced into stocks, he says. "Everybody already knows [the negatives]. The idea that it's too early is ridiculous." Others are running scared, Meehan says, because they are scared. "When you call six bottoms in five months you tend not to want to stick your neck out and get it chopped off again." Necks were out yesterday, as the Dow rose 258 points, or 2.62%. There was no real news driving the rally, but sentiment seems to have turned, at least for one day--and perhaps for a while--after the widespread bloodletting of the last quarter. Gainers were everywhere: In tech stocks, Cisco Systems (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news) popped $1.37 to $15.86; Intel (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) climbed $1.57 to $24.77; Sun Microsystems (NasdaqNM:SUNW - news) levitated $1.61 to $14.65; EMC (NYSE:EMC - news) rose $3.61 to $34.40. In financials, Citigroup (NYSE:C - news) gained $2.57 to $45.40. In industrials, General Electric (NYSE:GE - news) popped $1.83 to $43.83 and Corning (NYSE:GLW - news) climbed $2.59 to $22.20. Even Motorola (NYSE:MOT - news) rose by $1.50 or 13% to $13. But after the bell, the chipmaker and cell-phone manufacturer announced its first losing quarter in 16 years. The apparent absence of any discernible reason for the rally was a concern. Jeff DeGraaf, chief market strategist for Lehman Brothers, said the rally had no catalyst and that there was "an awful lot of skepticism surrounding Nasdaq and tech stocks. There was a vacuum created by sellers," meaning much of the buying was by short sellers covering their positions. This was especially true of the even larger rally on April 4. "Yesterday was a bit more legitimate," he says. Determining what part of the rally was legitimate and which part was phony is indeed hard work. Consider the words yesterday of William Poole. Poole, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, stated that the chances of a recession, defined as a two-quarter contraction, were quite low. "From those numbers, the chance of a recession is... one in four,'' Poole said in a speech to student groups in Tennessee. But Poole is also a student of chief interest-rate impresario, Alan Greenspan, a master qualifier of all remarks. Thus he added: "A recession scenario is not necessarily off the table.'' Meehan of Cantor Fitzgerald said that many of his colleagues interpret Poole's statements and others like it as negative because it could mean that the Federal Reserve will not order an interim interest rate cut. But Meehan says interest-rate cuts in the recent past have not helped share prices and are not likely to do so anytime soon. The recent share-price declines were caused by the popping of an asset bubble and pullbacks from overinvestment and excess spending. "Consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt," Meehan says. Lower interest rates are not going to get them to borrow more. What will send stocks higher is better earnings reports and, even more important, a realignment of investor expectations. "I'm telling my clients to be fully invested," Meehan says. "Even if I'm wrong, I don't see much downside.">>

To: Venkie who wrote (35648)	4/11/2001 12:47:48 PM
From: Percival 917	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Donnie, RE...I say we ban the jerks from here when they come over with that bear crap..doom I disagree with you here. As long as their info is presented without taunting, I think there opinion should be heard. If we had listened more last year many of us would not have suffered as many losses. We all were caught up in the bubble effect and were all going to retire in another year or so. We need that opposing viewpoint to temper our enthusiasm and make us look more closely before taking the plunge. I have found Patron, tippet, Allan, heinz, etc viewpoints to be very informative. As always JMHO, Later, Joel

To: Venkie who wrote (35648)	4/11/2001 2:00:33 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 65232

Hey Venk, glad to see things are going so good but it is the bulls who are the notorious taunters, not the bears. Luc gets PM after PM of taunts, which have traditionally signaled that the market is about to turn back down. Its uncanny really. For me, its really not about doom and gloom so much as not getting my ass kicked by the bear. I can't, or don't want to fight the greater market trend like you seem to be able to. I think this rally is great and all, but get your 1 year Nasdaq chart up and take a look where we are and this rally is nothing more than a wiggle, although I am inclined to believe it will last longer than many bears think. Don't extrapolate the CFZ bearishness as anything more than economy/market related. We aren't all walking around in black clothes clutching sickles you know. Cheers Shack