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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (89921)	4/11/2001 3:54:55 PM
From: Brian	Respond to of 95453

CRZO is up 12% today, bucking the trend, any news? Brian

To: ild who wrote (89921)	4/11/2001 3:58:09 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

ild re: refineries ... first; I don't follow them closely. While this is a nice sweet-spot for them margin-wise; I don't think they have the momenteum potential as do the offshore drillers - which I think is the "no-brainer" risk vs reward play for this mature/late point in the cycle. It is hard to make a case for any subsector, or individual stocks having more earnings momenteum potential than the drillers and stocks like PDE are fundamentally cheap at forward PE's of 7 x 2002 earnings... now THAT is a positive risk vs reward stock in THIS portion of the oilpatch cycle. I still hold PDE RIG & ATW here & think they've got good odds for one more major up move. If crude prices can hold thru Aug/Sept - I think we see profit taking opps at $65 RIG, $35 PDE and $55 ATW - all 40/50%% pops from here. But, I plan on selling a bit too soon - and do not care if those are the ultimate tops; as I honestly think that anyone who has been around since the dark days of $10 Oil in the fall of 1998 and who has a 2.5 bagger from this cycle allready made & that tries to catch that last 10-20% of the cycle top - is a fool... a speculator, a gambler & an addict - not a savy LONGTERM cyclical investor, or trader. I'll kick myself if I'm around for the last 10-20% OSX blow off top... honestly; given the historic volatility upon cycle rollovers here and given the amount of money many of us have made over the last 18-24 months here; risking a 30-50% cycle rollover vs. that last 10-20% blow off top; is what will separate the winners from the ultimate losers on this cycle. We're going to get another pullback to OSX 100-105, or 115ish sooner, or later (and probably sooner) that won't result in a nice DCB rally - but, rather will follow with yet another blow off leg to OSX 88ish and then it's too late to be talking about tops any longer & it will suck in those who see it as yet another trading opp - with people margin levering & doubling down; but, sadly and ultimately that will be followed by yet another downdraft leg to the 60/70's and there - it no longer matters - you just gave up 2 years of gains. When we've allready got a 2.5 bagger in the cash register; there is no risk vs reward in trying to be the last bull standing on that last move to the exact cycle top. Take the next significant rally leg & bank it - buy some "calls" with a small percentage of the profits and let "that" option/lotto ticket on "blue sky" ride - but sleep well knowing you've got a 2.5 bagger allready in the cash register here and if you really want to be a LT cyclical trader - live to relish the shortside cyclical ride as well; because just as sure as the sun will rise in the East; the downside ride will be just as sweet & profitable as the ride up was...