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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (89922)	4/11/2001 4:02:50 PM
From: monu	Respond to of 95453

Hey Slider, Just thought you'd like to know that I print out many of your posts (not the ankle biting comments ad nauseum) because you're just about the sharpest guy on these threads. Don't let it get to your head, but your comments are very much appreciated (when you stick to topic). Isopatch also, sans the constant Q remarks, offers quite a bit. Thank you both.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (89922)	4/11/2001 4:27:25 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

talk about a nattering nabob of negativity.... no, you could NOT have said we were at trough valuations all the way down...unless you are working on a different definition..which is possible. Let's work through it slippy. Since the semi industry peaked in 2000 at over 12x trailing revenue..that is called a PEAK. In December with price to sales multiples fell below 2 it is REASONABLE to begin to contend we are approaching TROUGH multiples. ( I realize being reasonably contentious is not in your repertoire, but bear with me. Previous TROUGHS have been found in the 1 - 2x range. For a fellow who is normally fairly good at looking forward BEYOND the current state of affairs...e.g. oil. your comments smack of a pretty good imitation of rear view mirror evaluation. It would be presumptuous of me to tell you that the stock prices in the semiconductor business tend to react positively at least 6 months prior to a reversion to positive growth in bookings, so I won't. Since you enjoy steve roach, you are aware that although he has downside risk to his global gdp growth rates for 2002. It is currently 4.2 with his appraisal of downside risk in the 3.0 - 3.2 range. Either of these numbers is adequate to produce a positive result in semiconductor and equipment stocks, because as you no doubt realize changes in gdp and semiconductor sector are VERY correlated. While you, by your own admission can call exact bottoms like no one in the investment arena, I on the other hand only get lucky occasionally. I have no comments on your gold retort as it was too far down the page to get to. In the future you might consider breaking up your messages into multiples. Once they start looking like dry heaves I tend not to read too closely. MT