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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9660)	4/11/2001 6:26:45 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Of course i understand, i used the same logic last April when the BTB reached a record of 1.44 and suggested, can i get any better? Now, we may be getting into an area (and I disagree with Joseph that it is here, I have the bottom in the stocks probably in August, but that is another story), were the semi equip industry has achieved such a slow order rate it is not even sufficient to maintain the existing infrastructure. I think we are at least another quarter away from the bottom, simply because in the meanwhile, the industry has added last year a lot of capacity and is currently working at something between 65% to 70% of its capacity, until they will get to 85% of capacity (or 20% higher in chip shipments than the current rough rate of $200 B/year, or $240 B), there will be no urgency to order new fabs. As I have said before here, the crystallizing event that may signal the approaching bottom, is INTC deserting its current stance of "we will absolutely, no question asked, spend $7.5 B on capex this year". That might bring about the cathartic cleaning of the deck on which powerful new cyclical move up are built. Of course, if I see a stock like AMAT, closing above $52, or NVLS above $50, or even LRCX here above $30, that would indicate to me that we may turn ahead of my turnips' schedule. Right now, I have taken most of those stock bought last week off the table with very nice profits thank you, and await to see what happens in the course of the next week. I expect the current euphoria to peak by Friday next week. Zeev

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9660)	4/11/2001 6:33:44 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

SSB's spinning of Cypress's "zero orders for Q4" as indicating the bottom makes about as much sense as their comments about tantalum capacitors last year. Since Cypress is not the entire semiconductor industry, the door is still open for other semiconductor makers' order outlooks to deteriorate. Some investors have apparently been treating Jonathon Joseph as the new oracle based on his call last year, ignoring the possibility that he might have just gotten lucky.