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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52447)	4/11/2001 6:44:41 PM
From: nolimitz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Zeev So who would you say are to be "consumed" in the semi world? TIA

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52447)	4/11/2001 6:55:56 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>I hate it when you are right on a fundamental basis but still lose money because you don't get the psychology of this market<< YOU hate it? ;-) i'm a recovering micron put buyer. i haven't bought any in years. mu has funky stock action, for sure. the problem micron has is much more systemic than current market conditions. they spend $2 billion a year to make $1 billion during average time. sure, they were bailed out by the bubble markets and the converts (helluva call!). they will continue to need bailing out b/c they can't make enough dough to run their their business over the long run. with unit pc shipments expected to drop this year and inventories to the rafters, lam can sell nothing and not impact supply. but, i do learn, mu is quite a beast. i will be back playing the market when i get enough dough together to have a strong money management system. my first goal was to pay off my condo rental free and clear. that goal was accomplished, however, my taxes this year are so ugly they scare janet reno. ;-) fundamentals do not alway rules. however, neither do the trends (as in rambust ;-) we all have a lot to learn. i want to keep my dough safe while i do my learning, hence the money management system. best of luck shorting this bow wow at YOUR price points :-)

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52447)	4/11/2001 8:01:57 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 53903

Zeev: Re: ": "How worse can it be?" What he failed to observe is that when things are really really bad, companies layoff people left and right, marginal players go broke,. and the stronger eat the weaker. We have not seen much of that yet in the semi space as yet" Well, for Joseph things were so bad on Monday that he downgraded the semis but then he put on a different face today to say that things were so bad that they could not get any worse and so he upgraded the semis. Same premise; different conclusion for Joseph over the span of a few days. His analysis is like the volatility in the Nasdaq -- wild daily swings. Like you say, things can go from bad to worse in this segment in a heartbeat. But the alternative conclusion is that while things may not get much worse for the sector, they may not necessarily improve at all either. They may level off at a lower level. So how much does one want to pay for a stagnant balance sheet that goes nowhere but may in fact trend down or tick up? Semis look like a dressed up balance sheets from the huge upcycle at this point with no place to go. LRCX is laying off a nice chunk of people. Not necessarily a vote of confidence for the future upswing. Too bad analysts did not seem interested in asking about this point. Semis were relatively weak yesterday. The close yesterday did not exceed the April 5th close while the Nasdaq and NDX went well over their April 5th close then. But the upgrades put the semis in rally mode from an oversold state.