Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (123541)	4/11/2001 8:44:19 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

heinz: First of all thank you. Now you say "as a consequence, banks begin to curtail their lending and capital markets seize up, with credit spreads ballooning (already happening). this leads to an (involuntary) contraction in the money supply (we're not there yet - the money supply is currently still expanding at astonishing, banana republic like rates), and falling prices. the falling prices then contribute to the above vicious spiral by further constricting consumer demand, as buying decisions are postponed in the expectation of lower prices in the future." First, why do you think the Fed has been somewhat slow in cutting rates -- or perhaps you do not agree with that statement -- while increasing money-supply to such a large degree? Second, why do you think the dollar is holding up so well -- and (if you don't mind) do you think the dollar can hold up through this whole process (assuming we are talking about a few years for the working-out of the bubble)? TIA

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (123541)	4/11/2001 9:34:04 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<<i strongly recommend reading through the entire archive of Doug Noland's Credit Bulletin (you can access the archive by scrolling down to the bottom of the page and clicking on the link - the current report is also well worth reading, and starts off with a few revealing charts). it is a valuable chronic of the credit excesses perpetrated during the boom, replete with examples from economic history, as well as data one never gets to see anywhere else, and which are scary indeed: prudentbear.com >> Heinz, the Prudent Bear people woefully underperfrom the bear market they track to. And in the years up through the end of 2000, they lost a huge amount of money for their shareholders. As bears and short artists, they're not very good at all. Several mos back I was going to put some money with them. I did some reasearch on them and turns out they are not very capable, so I went with the ProFunds Ultra OTC Short fund (USPIX) instead. I've doen a lot better with USPIX than I would have with their bear fund. So you're quoting them and their sources? Well take it for what it's worth. I sure will. They really are not very good at what they do. Victor