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To: Agamemnon who wrote (93206)	4/12/2001 1:41:47 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i wouldn't rule it out completely. after all, the market can in theory do anything...but i'd still be surprised if the bear turned out to be so shallow considering the incredible mania that has preceded it and has obviously concluded. a shallow bear market should at least produce average valuations - valuations remain very high however. and the money supply argument runs into the 'no free lunch' rule. it is simply not possible to increase financial sector leverage at a rate far outpacing economic growth forever. the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP has for instance been at current levels for the last time in 1815. a successful reflation would result in even greater imbalances than we have already, and we're breaking records in private sector debt for several years already. i don't believe the stock market will escape the adjustment process so easily. i'm open to the possibility that a further denouement may be postponable - but not avoidable.