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To: JRI who wrote (93251)	4/12/2001 12:05:30 AM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 436258

i agree with your post... we all knew about these problems 2 years ago even before the bubble began to pop but that doesnt mean we hit the bottom then... all these things...debt levels, unemployment, etc have not even really hit yet or been resolved.. and people are calling a bottom...doesn't make sense... i understand the importance of getting in early to be in for the bounce but we havent even really entered the recession "by the numbers"..how can we be at a bottom?

To: JRI who wrote (93251)	4/12/2001 2:14:31 PM
From: bill meehan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The excess liquidity and huge increase (on an absolute basis) indeed caused an asset bubble. That bubble has burst already. Don't have the time to delve into each of your points, but if this thread is aware of the real and potential problems (and it surely has been for some time), why would you think everybody else remains in the dark? It's not like speculative stocks have been surging over the past year. As for excess capacity and inventories, the latter are perishable unlike widgets and steel and the former will shut down (one way or the other) until it becomes profitable to operate.