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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (20027)	4/12/2001 7:32:08 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 24042

Cisco's recovery is what makes a little more optimistic on JDSU but I still feel that this sector will lag a bit.

To: pass pass who wrote (20027)	4/12/2001 10:42:25 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 24042

"does not seem to have a stable base yet. It may go to $30 fast but profit-taking will tank it again. I'm thinking, why should this matter? Either this stock is cheap, 'fairly priced', or expensive. If cheap, then what would we care if Mr. Market sells it off again demonstrating his short-term focus and long term ignorance. I say, let it tank again. I backed up the truck (not the pick-up truck, either; it was my off-road logging truck) and loaded her down with JDSU a week ago Wednesday. If it gets that cheap again and I have more cash, I'm loading up again. Think about it: in the fall of 1998, this stock--JDS Fitel--was selling with a p/e in the mid to upper 20s (trailing). We're below or at least in the same territory. Does anyone believe FO is dead? Sure all the now-revealed-as-dumb talk that the FO buildout was on a permanently steepining curve and immune from the business cycle tricked a lot of people into buying when the stock was way too expensive. That same talk kept people who had made big paper profits in the stock till they rode it down or capitulated and sold out. But that was then and this is now. The FO buildout is not dead; it is experiencing a period of slower growth; but by general business standards, the growth rate remains extraordinary; and JDSU _is_ a (the?) main supplier. Why would I not want to jump at the chance to buy earnings growth of 40%, 50%, or more (average over the next 5 years) at a p/e of 20? Why should I care if there is no solid bottom yet when the real risk now, I think, is that I'd miss the upside potential. (This is, by the way, just the opposite condition to the fall of 1999/winter 2000 when the main risk was mostly to the downside as evidenced by the outrageously high multiple Mr. Market so foolishly allowed himself to pay for JDSU. Funny guy, that Mr. Market. But, I must really thank him for being so accomodating--after all, he gladly bought my shares in the winter of 2000 and then sold them back to me last week. Thank you very much, guy.) Ciao, Hank Stamper