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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (9670)	4/12/2001 9:43:36 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

? If cycles are shorter on the downside it is likely they will also be shorter on the upside This is not your typical cyclical downturn, caused by overzealous chipmakers spending far too much. Last year as of July, TSMC was sold out of capacity through 2002. This cownturn was brought about by a falloff in end user demand(because of an overzealous Alan Greenspan), something I have never seen in this sector(I've only been invested since '96). And contrary to popular opinion, not much new capacity was brought online last year; 300mm will do that. Last years purchases were primarily technology buys, so when any uptick in end user demand occurs, chipmakers may be caught with their pants down once again, as they then rush to add capacity. BK

To: w0z who wrote (9670)	4/12/2001 7:32:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re; "this time, however, orders at Lam have gone from peak to trough bookings in 90 days" Well.........how does he know we are now at trough bookings? He's guessing and hoping; we can't really know it until bookings pick up, which hasn't happened yet. Getting to trough bookings in 3 months isn't what has happened in other downturns. The increased speed of information transfer, doesn't change the speed at which decision-makers think (or the accuracy of their ability to predict the future).