As for your computer problems, build your own. It is easy and it makes upgrading a snap. No proprietary junk to worry about.
thoughts and found posts........
By L3_Aka_L3 on Thursday, April 12, 2001 - 08:09 pm: Edit
PPI came in a little light with a minus .1 and a plus .1 ex energy and food.
Initial claims came in really hot at 392 versus the 380 expected and retail sales came in light at point one under estimates both regualr and ex auto.
What really took us down this morning though was Michigan sentiment which everyone thought would be 91 and instead came in at 87 an 8 year low. If the consumer tightens their belt, that throws us into hard recession and the spook was on.
About the same time, Retail sales started coming out for each of the major players. WMT was bad, S was worse.
GE met with a few bookkeeping irregularities no one wanted to talk about, JNPR did OK although they guided down for the future and BGEN had a 40% drop in earnings but blamed it on a one time gain from the last report. No one seemed to mind and they went up.
Mid morning I read that CIBC issued an upgrade on JNPR and it took off. Later NT was rumored to say that the inventory of their customers that was 12 weeks had already dropped to only 6 weeks. This lit a fire under the market and up we went.
After the close, PWAV missed bad but they are small time. Tomorrow despite the market being closed, we get a business inventories economic report. Expectations are for .2 to .3 increase. We'll see.
The market reacted stronger than I expected and even though TRIN was not ideal and volume was light, I decided to hold my positions for some follow through Monday. Recall that I am hedged a bit so I am just trying to milk every bit I can out of this move. My weekly signals are just too good to get caught dumping early even though I know Don is close to a signal and our indicator is saying to bail. For those not hedged, I don't recomend this. Bear rallies are fierce but unpredictable. My main reason for my holding was I was hedged and after NTAP warned and some other bad news, the market was able to fight it's way back up. I don't want to short that kind of strength.
Markets are closed tomorrow so I haven't decided if I will rush to do the charts tonight or wait until later yet.
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From Robert Hahn:
4/12/01
"After a major breakdown in the market (like what happened to the DJIA in March) it's still in the “crash format” to expect a 50% retrace off the first reaction low, which is what we've had in the DJIA. From the January 31 high (record high in the VLE arithmetic index) we are now in trading day 49. The danger is not past until we get well past the 54th and 55th day after a record high. Crash patterns of the past have culminated around the 55th day.
Also, the Arms Index in excess of 1.5 on March 22 is a historical indicator of a major market low, within 20 days. We are now in trading day 14 past the March 22 event. Day 20 is options expiration day on April 20."
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WMT warned and we still closed positive on the indexes.....
From: sammaster Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 10:11 AM
Wal-Mart warns about Q1 results (WMT) By Michael Baron
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) said it may not meet Wall Street expectations for a profit of 32 cents a share in the first quarter but added that it does expect its profit for the period to be slightly above last year's earnings of 30 cents a share. In a sales update posted on its Web site, the Bentonville, Ark., discount general merchandise retailer attributed the shortfall to cooler weather patterns over the last several weeks. For both April and the first quarter as a whole, Wal-Mart forecast same-store sales growth of 3 to 5 percent. Earlier this morning, the Dow component reported March total company same-store sales rose 3.3 percent. Total company sales for the five weeks ended April 6 rose 11.3 percent to $18.77 billion from $16.87 billion in the same period a year earlier. The shares are off $2.25, or 4.5 percent, to $47.98.
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Consumer sentiment falls to 87.8 By Rex Nutting
Consumer sentiment continued to fall in early April. The University of Michigan's survey fell to 87.8 in April from 91.5 in March and well below the 90.5 expected. While the level is "inconsistent" with a recession, researchers said it makes a rebound later this year "less likely." Consumers were more pessimistic about both the current situation and the immediate future. Confidence among higher-income households plunged, due to falling wealth, while those at the bottom of the ladder were more worried about jobs than they were in March.
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From: Les Horowitz Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 12:06 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 93725
LOL. Online brokers have less than $ 1000 per account
thedeal.com
Now, you can place trades from Target in aisle 13
dailynews.yahoo.com
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From: sirinam Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 12:57 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 5739
11:51 ET ******
From Briefing.com
Juniper Networks (JNPR) 43.75 +0.99: Good news: Juniper guided Q1 numbers higher at the
time of its last report in January; it never warned, and it then met expectations for EPS today
and barely missed its revenue number... Bad news: Juniper guided Q2 and the rest of FY01
lower, had a book-to-bill ratio of less than 1, and noted limited visibility going forward...
Market greeting news favorably, which probably says more about the short position in the stock
than it says about the report... Looking forward, Juniper's near-term outlook is not that bright...
Company sees revenues flat to down through the rest of the year -- guided FY01 revenues to
$1.25-1.35 bln from an annualized Q1 pace of $1.33 bln... Like just about every company
selling into the telecom service provider market, Juniper seeing a slowdown... As we have noted
many times recently, no matter how good your gear is, there is not much you can do when
customers simply go out of business, which is what is happening to many CLEC and ISP
customers... Even Tier 1 customers are scaling back capex plans this year; Worldcom (WCOM),
which accounted for 18% of Juniper sales last year, was not a 10% customer in Q1 as it reduced
orders significantly... Question now is the extent to which this year's downturn affects Juniper's
long-term prospects... This is where the story improves -- Juniper's core routers have been
steadily taking market share from Cisco (CSCO), and the growth in IP traffic will continue even
if many dot-coms do not... IP traffic is the language of the networked economy, and the
networked economy is all-encompassing, not just a dot-com phenomenon... Therefore fair for
Juniper to be optimistic about its prospects... Last year, that was enough; this year, valuation
matters... This story gets old (we certainly get tired writing it), but Juniper is another case of a
solid company whose current risk/reward proposition is just not that attractive... At lower end of
EPS guidance range for FY01 (Dec), its P/E is 49, and there is no guarantee that it can't get
worse than that... Having the best gear doesn't guarantee a strong stock performance... Size and
long-term growth rate of Juniper's market have been called into question by the implosion of
telecom service providers... Just how bad it gets will determine a fair value for Juniper.. While
that might be the current value or even higher, upside potential at the current price is not enough
to counter the substantial downside risk. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com |
