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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (3737)	4/16/2001 8:10:16 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Mrs. P, Iet's see what Briefing had to say, as i was out. Retail detail: the detail is just as sour as the overall decline. The bigger picture is the weakened state going in to the second quarter. Durable goods sales showed broad-based declines as autos fell 0.8%, building materials fell after a strong Feb gain and "luxury items" such as furniture and appliances fell for the fourth month in the last five. Nondurable goods sales edged just 0.1% higher after the Feb decline pulled by a strong drop in gas station sales and modest declines in food and apparel. Merchandise sales rose as did restaurant (and bar) sales as drug stores provided the largest gain. The April Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell 3.7 points to a level below the February low. While a decline was expected and the severity is in line with the last six months, the simple fact that the consumer continues to see a darker outlook says a great deal about the spending and growth outlook. The overall index fell to 87.8. Declines were seen in both components as expectations returned to the 80.8 low of February and the present situation fell 4.7 points as layoffs and the trend direction in equity prices provide the downward direction. The continued downward trend in consumer sentiment is a key guide toward Fed policy direction and with the decline in retail sales and PPI an intermeeting ease remains a possibility (or certainly should be Alan).