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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (51337)	4/12/2001 2:40:35 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Oh, I'm not writing off "optical" that would be dumb. But I don't think it's the stuff on which they will more than double the business. Which is kinda necessary when you multiply 7.5 Billion by $18 per share... if you are thinking in value terms. Careful about calling payback though. Payback in Revenue is not payback of cost. You need to review accretive earnings net of dilution. Not revenue. If I sell you $20 bills for $19 each I bet you and all your friends would line up to help me make a million in revenue quite quickly. But my banker would think that was a lousy business in which to sink his $20 Million. Of course, I may have been dealing with the wrong banker all my life... maybe I need to find one of those "new economy" guys... but you get my drift... in a light hearted way... the point is that the only thing that matters is earnings. The reason to focus on the top line is that a healthy business can not grow the bottom line at a sustainable rate any higher than the top line. So top line growth is an upper bound. Bottom line can shrink even with top line growth. My eyes riveted on both lines, and cash flow. $24 vs $25 B... We're not far apart here. It's not that JNPR is a big thorn in the side. But they don't call it "death by a thousand paper cuts" for nothing. Remember when IBM was the big, bloated industry dominating gorilla and CSCO was the irrelevant little niche player? It's the circle of life as my Lion King watching son would say. Might be soon time to go long, but this is very much a traders' market if you ask me. No way we should see the kind of volatility intraday we see now on ZERO relevant news. IMHO this should tell you there's chum in the water and the sharks are in a frenzy. John.