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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (5708)	4/12/2001 11:54:10 AM
From: adcpres	Respond to of 52237

Paul: Indicators went into neutral territory. With the low volume one must be cautious. Retiring for the week. Can't call this one. GH

To: Paul Shread who wrote (5708)	4/12/2001 12:23:14 PM
From: john722	Respond to of 52237

Paul. Fast Drop in the tick. From 32.75 to 31 in 15 minutes. Any guesses?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (5708)	4/12/2001 12:57:01 PM
From: sirinam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

11:51 ET ****** From Briefing.com Juniper Networks (JNPR) 43.75 +0.99: Good news: Juniper guided Q1 numbers higher at the time of its last report in January; it never warned, and it then met expectations for EPS today and barely missed its revenue number... Bad news: Juniper guided Q2 and the rest of FY01 lower, had a book-to-bill ratio of less than 1, and noted limited visibility going forward... Market greeting news favorably, which probably says more about the short position in the stock than it says about the report... Looking forward, Juniper's near-term outlook is not that bright... Company sees revenues flat to down through the rest of the year -- guided FY01 revenues to $1.25-1.35 bln from an annualized Q1 pace of $1.33 bln... Like just about every company selling into the telecom service provider market, Juniper seeing a slowdown... As we have noted many times recently, no matter how good your gear is, there is not much you can do when customers simply go out of business, which is what is happening to many CLEC and ISP customers... Even Tier 1 customers are scaling back capex plans this year; Worldcom (WCOM), which accounted for 18% of Juniper sales last year, was not a 10% customer in Q1 as it reduced orders significantly... Question now is the extent to which this year's downturn affects Juniper's long-term prospects... This is where the story improves -- Juniper's core routers have been steadily taking market share from Cisco (CSCO), and the growth in IP traffic will continue even if many dot-coms do not... IP traffic is the language of the networked economy, and the networked economy is all-encompassing, not just a dot-com phenomenon... Therefore fair for Juniper to be optimistic about its prospects... Last year, that was enough; this year, valuation matters... This story gets old (we certainly get tired writing it), but Juniper is another case of a solid company whose current risk/reward proposition is just not that attractive... At lower end of EPS guidance range for FY01 (Dec), its P/E is 49, and there is no guarantee that it can't get worse than that... Having the best gear doesn't guarantee a strong stock performance... Size and long-term growth rate of Juniper's market have been called into question by the implosion of telecom service providers... Just how bad it gets will determine a fair value for Juniper.. While that might be the current value or even higher, upside potential at the current price is not enough to counter the substantial downside risk. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com