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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (7720)	4/12/2001 12:41:23 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15481

Where can I buy some of that eau du irrational exuberance" online? <g> Actually at the end of every bear market, there are a wise or lucky few who don't capitulate. At the bottom, somebody holds all those shares; they just aren't worth very much. And as the bear transforms back into a bull, those who didn't capitulate at the end are the ones we call rich. I'm sure you saw the Juniper CEO on TV this morning talking about the strength in Asia and the relative weakness (but stability) in Europe and North America. And also talking about how in the final analysis, if the product drives efficiency and value it will still sell even in a downturn. I thought the golf analogy he used was great: he said that his company's recent performance was like a golfer shooting a par round in a driving rain. If conditions were better, the score would have been better too, but all things considered it was a good round (quarter). I think that watching for companies that execute tolerably well in these difficult conditions will tell you who will lead the resurgence when it comes. The rest of your comments about the market cycle prompt me to say that a recovery anytime soon requires faith in the concept that the timing of the market cycle has significantly shortened. While it is true that the world has changed, and that improved information flow has caused quicker reactions and therefore may shorten the cycle, by traditional measures this is way too early to talk about a market recovery of any significant breadth. A lot of equity was wiped out, and cannot be rebuilt overnite. In the end, what will drive a large market rebound will be the flow of lots and lots of capital into the equity markets. Right now, I don't see where that capital is going to come from in the short term. There is some in money market funds (more than usual anyway), but that alone can't drive us to 5000 or higher anytime soon. As for China and India, I remember discussing that with a bunch of people way back when on the YHOO boards. Yes, China has 1.2B people. India now has a little over 1 Billion people. But.....most of them are peasants, to be blunt about it. They have no money, and won't anytime soon. They are looking for a way to eat, not for a better deal on wireless Internet access. The true size of the available markets for tech products in those countries has absolutely nothing to do with the total population. My own belief is that the available market in those two countries in the next 20 years is probably smaller than the U.S. market, which in some areas (cell phones and Internet adoption for example) is already within sight of saturation. As for Africa, most of that continent never really entered the 20th century by Western economic definitions, and its impact as a market will not soon be felt IMO. Just a few more points to ponder...your points, as always, are very well taken.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (7720)	4/12/2001 3:33:30 PM
From: Rich1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15481

We should bottle that Eau stuff.. BTW given NTAP warned and is only down $.35 I say we bottomed.. A month ago would have been down..

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (7720)	4/12/2001 8:44:11 PM
From: mph	Respond to of 15481

Interesting points, Jorjie Porjie. The reality is that time passes way too swiftly anymore. Market cycles seem to be as compressed as everything else. Powering up to 5000 was truly a bubble and achieved way too quickly. We're still suffering from the opposite end of the spectrum. I suspect that once a greater degree of equillibrium is restored that we will begin a slower, but steady upward climb. It's rather been like those anti-gravity carnival rides. A few G's each way before you're returned to solid ground. Obviously there's a future. And lots of opportunity before most of us here retire. Ultimately things will work themselves out. Until then, I'm still a short term trader, i.e., when I can even find the time!!!!:-) M