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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hamsandwich who wrote (20038)	4/12/2001 4:57:23 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 24042

Ham, I suspect our investing approaches are different. For me, when I buy I build into my purchase decision an assumption about at least a 20% (usually my calculations tell me to expect more) decline from the present price--sort of 'disappointment insurance.' But, I'll buy anyway when my reckoning points to a much greater upside potential. For me, if I bought at say 15 and it went to 10, I wouldn't fret (except to buy more) because my assumptions in this case have the company producing earnings that would support a price of 40 in four years. That's not bad, in the context of history. Actually, it's a great return by any historically sustainable standard (e.g., Buffett's record). Right now, my concern is not getting the best bargain--nailing the stock on its lowest day. When I sold in the winter of 2000, my concern was not getting out on the high either--I actually missed that by between 15 and 20% depending on the particular blocks I sold. My concern right now is that this stock again reflects great value and a few bucks one way or the other don't matter. I think, "What if I had fretted my first-time purchase of JDS Fitel at a cost basis of 7.00 US?" Maybe I'd have waited for it to go to 6 or 5--recall the negative sentiment in the late summer/fall of 1998? I got to say at the point of selling for an over 1500% gain, the thought of whether I could have got a 1500.01% gain was not a real big item in this dumb logger's brain. Now, I doubt if this stock will ever again make that sort of gain in such a short time--stock market bubbles are rare--but I will not fret the difference between a 200% to 210% gain in the next 5 or 8 years. But I would be cheesed off if I lost my window of opportunity over a measly couple of bucks at this point. Hank Stamper