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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (137833)	4/12/2001 3:23:19 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

...March's 4.3 percent unemployment rate was only 0.1 point higher than February's, but nevertheless the highest since July 1999 when it was also 4.3 percent. The total number of unemployed workers rose to 6.1 million last month, the first time it has been that high in two years. Some other details in the report were more positive. The length of the average workweek in the private economy for production and non-supervisory employees rose by six minutes, to 34.3 hours. That was slightly more than enough to offset the decline in employment, so that the total number of hours worked increased. In fact, the Labor Department's index of aggregate hours worked has been virtually flat for a year, rising at an annual rate of 0.8 percent since the end of last year. But because of substantial gains in productivity -- the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- the economy has continued to grow even though the number of hours worked has not. Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy, a financial markets research firm, said that if productivity rose at a 1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, coupled with the small increase in hours worked, it would mean the economy grew at a 1.5 percent to 2 percent pace in January through March. In other words, if productivity continues to increase -- as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials believe it will -- it would be possible for the economy to grow slowly while payrolls do not and the unemployment rate goes up. Also, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, many local and regional labor markets remain so tight that workers losing jobs are readily finding new ones. The median length of time people have been without a job was 6.5 weeks last month, up from about 6 weeks for most of the past year. In the early 1990s, that figure was as high as 10 weeks. (At the median, half of those unemployed have been jobless for more than 6.5 weeks and half have been jobless for less. The Labor Department said that along with a loss of 81,000 manufacturing jobs and 46,000 retail jobs, payrolls in temporary-help firms fell by 83,000 and are down by 300,000 over the past 11 months. Many of those lost jobs were also at manufacturing firms, which typically have a substantial number of workers supplied by temp agencies. But the number of service jobs rose enough in other industries to offset the combined loss in retailing and temporary help. "Strong job growth continued in health services and in computer and data processing services," said Katharine G. Abraham, commissioner of labor statistics. "Employment also rose in social, educational and legal services. Engineering and management services continued to add jobs in March." There were also employment gains in construction and in mortgage banking, where low mortgage interest rates have increased mortgage refinancing and required more workers, Abraham said. Most of the increase in unemployment was among adult men,whose rate rose to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent in February. The rate among adult women fell slightly to 3.6 percent from 3.7 percent while that for teenagers rose to 13.8 percent from 13.6 percent. washingtonpost.com © 2001 The Washington Post Company

To: Scumbria who wrote (137833)	4/12/2001 3:25:40 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 769667

Car Industry Cuts Inventories Sales in March Were Better Than Expected By John M. Berry Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, April 4, 2001; Page E01 Surprisingly strong sales of new cars and light trucks last month allowed most manufacturers to finish reducing their swollen inventories of unsold vehicles, according to figures released yesterday. The process of clearing the dealers' lots has been expensive for both the industry and its workers. But production cutbacks and layoffs by automakers and their suppliers in recent months have now given way to production increases. Some analysts estimate that the number of new cars and light trucks coming off U.S. assembly lines may have gone up in March as much as 10 percent from February's annual rate of 10.13 million vehicles. If so, that likely would mean overall U.S. industrial production rose last month at least slightly, after five consecutive monthly declines. More broadly, auto production increases scheduled for April-June, if realized, would add about 1 percentage point to the nation's economic growth rate in the current quarter. In the first quarter, depressed auto production reduced growth by about that much, analysts said. "The rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter after a steep drop in the fourth quarter suggests that the consumer remains a viable force in the U.S. economy, despite the equity market turmoil, the overall decline in consumer confidence and the daily parade of job cutback announcements at U.S. firms," said economist John Canally of Stone & McCarthy, a financial markets research firm. The largest U.S. automaker, General Motors Corp., said its dealers sold 442,573 new cars and trucks in the United States last month, down 4.6 percent from March 2000. Car sales were down 4 percent from the record pace of March 2000 and truck sales were off 5 percent. But sales for the month and quarter were much stronger than late last year and pleased company officials. "Industry sales have held up better than expected despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty, and we think this trend will characterize all of 2001," said Bill Lovejoy, a GM group vice president. That optimism was mirrored at Toyota Motor Sales USA Inc., where Jim Press, the chief operating officer, said: "Amid the current mixed bag of economic indicators, strong consumer spending continues to drive industry sales. Clearly, the economic slowdown has not impacted all segments and all manufacturers." In contrast to most other manufacturers, Toyota sold more cars and trucks last month than ever before. And for the first quarter as a whole, sales reached 398,523 vehicles, up 0.5 percent from the same period last year, Press said. Those figures include vehicles produced both in this country and abroad. From September to January, domestic production of motor vehicles and parts plunged 22 percent, a huge decline for a four-month period. The industry shuttered one assembly plant after another on a rotating basis, with an immediate impact on their suppliers. The big drop in output then rippled through other parts of the economy -- one reason why economic growth fell to just a 1 percent rate in the last three months of last year and may have been roughly as weak in the quarter just ended. DaimlerChrysler AG's U.S. sales fell substantially in March compared to the same month a year earlier, but the company nevertheless said it was encouraged. "We continue to gain momentum on a month-to-month comparison, which is crucial coming into the spring selling season," the company said in a statement. "The best barometer for momentum, however, is dealer orders. Orders in March were up 83 percent when compared to January. Inventory numbers for March 2001 continued in the right direction as well. "We've made a concerted effort to balance production with sales over the last six months," the statement said. Ford Motor Co. said it sold 386,069 vehicles last month, down 13 percent from its record sales of 441,701 cars and trucks in March 2000. The company plans to produce 1.23 million vehicles in the current quarter, a slight downward revision from the level announced a few days ago. The change is due to elimination of a shift at a Michigan plant that makes the Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition models, the company's biggest sport-utility vehicles, whose sales are lagging. washingtonpost.com

To: Scumbria who wrote (137833)	4/12/2001 3:27:32 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769667

Reports Offer Positive Economic News By John M. Berry Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, April 3, 2001; Page E01 Manufacturing activity is declining at a slower rate, while construction spending continues to rise, according to two reports released yesterday that provided positive signs for the nation's troubled economy. The nation's factories cut back on both production and employment in March, for the eighth consecutive month, but manufacturing activity declined more slowly last month than in January and February, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management. The NAPM's index covering factory activity rose to 43.1 last month from 41.9 in February and an even lower 41.2 in January. A reading below 50 means the sector is contracting; above 50 means it is expanding. Historically, an index level of 42 has been consistent with zero growth in the overall economy. Nevertheless, every component of the index -- new orders, production, employment, delivery times and inventories, rose compared with the two previous months. In other words, shrinkage of this key piece of the economy continued, but at a slower rate than before. Meanwhile, construction spending rose in February for the fourth month in a row, according to a stronger than expected Commerce Department report. The value of private and public construction rose 0.6 percent in February after a very strong increase of 2.2 percent in January. The January number was revised upward from the originally reported 1.5 percent. The two strong months suggest that inflation-adjusted construction spending will be up more than an 8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, which will be an important plus for the quarter's economic growth rate, analysts said. Pluses from consumer spending and construction will be needed to offset declines elsewhere, such as in business investment in equipment and inventories, to avoid a contraction in the overall economy. Many forecasters now expect the first quarter's growth to roughly match the 1 percent pace of the fourth quarter of last year. "The slower rate of decline in manufacturing is encouraging, but is still consistent with near-zero gross domestic product growth," said economist Charles Lieberman of Advisors Financial Center. But Lieberman believes that a large share of the manufacturing sector's woes can be traced to the auto industry, which cut production and employment sharply in the final months of 2000 when sales turned sour and the number of unsold vehicles on dealers' lots increased alarmingly. Sales have risen this year and, combined with the production cuts, have allowed the industry to move a lot of unsold cars and light trucks. "The auto industry remains a crucial sector within the economy, despite the attention lavished on dot-com and technology companies," Lieberman said. "Its remarkably quick inventory adjustment should lead to much more positive economic data for the second quarter. While more interest rate reductions are to be expected from the Federal Reserve, the economic news should turn more positive quite soon." Lieberman noted that automakers are recalling workers and again plan to increase production. "The tide appears to be turning, led by the manufacturing sector and the auto industry that have been so depressingly weak for the past few months," he said. Other analysts are less sanguine about the outlook, cautioning that even though consumer confidence stabilized last month, the confidence indexes of the University of Michigan and the Conference Board remain well below the levels of last summer, and the indexes could resume falling if a new wave of layoffs caused consumers to become more fearful for their jobs. If that happens, consumers might cut spending and force additional cuts in factory production. "If consumer spending falls as much as the confidence data imply, there will be a new round of inventory building and the NAPM index will fall back again," warned Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. Many analysts and policymakers are waiting with great interest for the March figures on employment and unemployment, which will be released Friday by the Labor Department, for further evidence on how the economy performed last month. Some are predicting either a very small gain in payroll jobs or perhaps a decline, but others are more optimistic. washingtonpost.com