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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (67581)	4/13/2001 12:47:48 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116972

Ironically, yesterday's economic reports were all weaker than had been forecast and indeed showed outright declines, suggesting the economy is very weak and that the Fed may well ease rates further to try to support the economy- this was the main reason for the rally in equities. What really drives consumer spending is the labor market with people concerned about losing their jobs. Consumer spending is going to be down. That's why the initial job claims carry so much weight. Initial jobless claims climbed to a five-year high of 392,000 in the latest reporting week. The report does cap a very disturbing trend that's been in place since last summer. The American Association of Individual Investors reported Thursday that 30.30% of investors surveyed online this week were bullish, 40.91% bearish and 28.79% neutral. <As of today's close I am now up a bit for the year to date.> That's nice to hear but I thought a Bear like you would be up very sharply this year. I played the long side in January and have been short for the most part in February, March and April. I have not been long equities since the end of January because I'm fundamentally bearish. We are in an earnings recession and I see that worsening as the year unfolds. I trade primarily on fundamentals not technicals-though I do look at technicals. I turned very bearish again last fall when the COMPX closed below 3000 and hit a new low. I went net short at that point. Moreover, I have been taking 25% of my profits on the short side and building a very diversified portfolio of gold stocks and buying gold bullion bars aggressively. I was trading gold stocks very successfully for a while; but I decided a couple of months ago that the risk in this market was not being long so I just buy ALL the dips now. I think the present bear rally can last through options expiration week. But a good time IMO to start building short positions will be the week of April 23. First Quarter GDP comes out on April 27 and I expect that number to surprise on the downside. That will be a very key number for Gold. Got Gold? Got Guns? Got Guts?