To: CIMA who wrote (8128 ) 4/15/2001 7:17:22 PM From: Richard Saunders Respond to of 24927 Oilpatch general - source Calgary Herald Saturday 14 April 2001. I've added some boldings below. Interesting and worthwhile comments mentioned too re: tax bills & production growth.......OILPATCH HITS A PROFITS GUSHER First-quarter results expected to be breathtaking Chris Varcoe While Canada's battered high-tech sector issues profit warnings on almost a daily basis, the oilpatch is preparing for an earnings avalanche. Petroleum producers hauled away a record $20 billion in earnings last year as after-tax cash flow doubled to $36.1 billion, said Ed Peplinski of energy consultancy ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary. With oil prices still strong and natural gas rates soaring to unprecedented heights, Peplinski predicted the sector should pocket a staggering $21.5 billion in profits this year -- more than triple 1999 levels -- on after-tax cash flow of $38.9 billion. Energy stocks are struggling to gain attention on financial markets, but they have accomplished something many Internet stocks haven't done lately: make money. "The drudges of the old economy are looking pretty good," said Peplinski. "It's just such a fabulous commodity price environment we're in." Next week, Canadian oil companies will begin to release first-quarter results and analysts expect the numbers will be breathtaking. Investment firm FirstEnergy Capital Corp. forecasts AEC will see profits (per share) more than triple, while Canadian Hunter Exploration Ltd. should report earnings up more than five-fold from a year ago. Integrated producers with exploration, production, refining and marketing operations will also see a healthy bump in earnings due to improved refining margins, said analyst Martin Molyneaux of FirstEnergy. "It will be by far the best quarter we've ever seen," he said. "You should see the profitability up, overall, by somewhere between 80 and 100 per cent." Industry players agree the first three months of 2001 were the best-ever for an oilpatch that struggled with crude prices below $11 a barrel in December 1998. "There will be record first-quarter results, right across the board," said Brian Prokop of Peters & Co. "We're going to see companies do exceedingly well, especially if they have any gas component to their production. "And the more gassy they are, the more they will exceed expectations," Prokop said. While last year's first-quarter results were fuelled by rising crude oil prices, gas will generate the big profits for many producers in 2001. For the first three months of the year, West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $28.67 US per barrel, down about 10 per cent from the fourth quarter but almost identical to year-earlier prices. During the quarter, heavy oil prices were squeezed by a wider discount to light oil prices. The Alberta spot price for gas averaged $8.48 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) during the first quarter, more than double the $3.18 per mcf in 2000. "You wonder if it's going to continue very much longer," said George Fink, president of Comstate Resources Ltd. "The strength has been sustained for such a long time, yet investors really still question whether (oil and gas) can maintain the momentum." The mountain of cash flow from high prices also presents a problem for the sector -- what to do with all that money. "It's a new type of thinking and problem -- to have more money than projects.," said Raymond Chan, chief financial officer of mid-sized Baytex Energy Ltd. "It's a stressful time, that's for sure, because you have to try to distinguish yourself . . . and make some pretty major decisions. Baytex, for example, has joined the list of companies taking advantage of the good times to consolidate the sector, making two friendly takeovers in the past month. ******Amid all of the sector's wealth, two trends are worth watching. ******* With the sector flush with earnings, many petroleum producers have eaten through their tax credits and will pay a big tax bill this year. FirstEnergy predicts the sector faces a whopping $9.5-billion tax bite in 2001, compared to $2.6 billion last year and only $320 million in 1999. The other indicator of success will come in production growth after the sector ramped up exploration work during the winter. "What will separate the men from the boys is . . . who's been able to add natural gas volumes and who hasn't," Molyneaux added. "Once you get past the oohing and ahhing of the per-share numbers for both cash flow and earnings, then you go back to the volume growth."