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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Davy Crockett who wrote (2084)4/13/2001 1:41:16 PM
From: kirby49  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5144
 
Hey Peter:

I was just mucking around with it (ADX) just to see what happened and didn't want anyone to take it too seriously. I only did it to see if Stockcharts would take the change from 14 which is their default to 13 which is what Elder uses in his book and then thought to change it to five days to reflect a trading week. I understand the whipsaw effect which occurs when you shorten the paramaters.

I also understand the relationship between the NAZ and TSE and why you use it, especially for cross-indexed stocks. I was at the time, hey it was late, thinking more of the sub-indices of the TSE and the stocks that aren't cross-listed or if they are they are OTC BB on the NAZ. More a looking to interpret that market carpet charts and the continuing search for sector rotation, such as to Comeco, Denison or Co-steel. In the past there have been differing opinions on this thread as to whether the techs brought us down and will lead us back up or whether it will be something else.

It is still my humble opinion that this is a bear market rally and as I am still more a position trader than you daytraders these things are probably more important to me than you guys who go short term. I'll get into it more and more I hope, but baby steps. I know you agree with Dines theory of rotating currency crisis and the resolution of that being the fall of the USD along with rampant inflation. I believe he expressed the point that the government would do all it could to hide inflation which is an increase in money supply by disguising it as a price and wage thing. Of course they are doing just that and have even kicked out energy prices from their equation so as to make it look as if inflation is in check. Good hedges against inflation are of course real estate and gold. Here is a link to an article today on the prudent bear and of course you have to consider the source.

prudentbear.com

If we were all locked into the same set of rules things would be very uninteresting which is why I did that experiment with the time frame and explains why on the day you sold your FN, I went out and repurchased it. As long as we are disciplined and use those trailing stops, the difference between what we are both doing should be only a short period of time such as a few weeks. Of course for every winner there is a loser and the ones we want to take advantage of are the undisciplined and those that are so large as to have lost the liquidity and nimbleness to operate in these markets. The big boys CB's, big banks, brokerage houses, governments of course all try to manipulate the markets and can to a greater extent than the Jonathan Ledbed's but when they come undone it is with a great crash and much nashing of teeth.

Regards

Bob