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To: Lucretius who wrote (93837)	4/13/2001 11:49:57 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

You are correct if what we've been going through in the last year can be accurately described as a secular bear market. What we've had has been a major correction in Nasdaq and a rising to sideways NYSE. If the NYSE now follows the Naz down we can start calling what we are in a secular bear. Until this happens I'm inclined to call what has happened in the Naz a speculative correction. Before you blast me, according to my data this latest rally shows all the signs of being a bear market rally. It will take significantly more pain before the public is exorcised of it's desire to speculate in the markets. Trading is a minority game. Gains in trading are made by the few at the expense of the many, as the crowd loses they are either taken out of the game or converted to the strategy of the winning minority. Once there is a majority practicing the tactics of the winners then the prospect for gains commiserate with the risk are diminished significantly. Once you have a significant number of people playing the short side of the market the ability to make money disappears, it becomes a game of musical chairs or chicken where everyone is looking at everyone else to see who will cover first. The rally of the last few days smelled a lot like amateur shorts being burned. Short and hold has become a sure thing in this decline. Anything that is a sure thing is a sure thing to go away, at least temporarily. You might be able to convince a lot of longs to hold to zero with some misplaced fundamental conviction, but shorts aren't going to hold when their positions move against them significantly....unless they are very young, naive and lucky.

To: Lucretius who wrote (93837)	4/13/2001 1:00:33 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>at a bottom prices go below fair value<< lt, that isn't a bottom, that is THE bottom. big difference, especially if you "trade" the market instead of "invest" in the market. the # of folks buying low and selling high is extremely low - maybe 1-2% of all players.

To: Lucretius who wrote (93837)	4/13/2001 1:09:24 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I wasn't following the market too closely when we had the last real bottom -- what, '82? -- but even so, I don't remember anybody talking about a bottom then. But I heard lots of talk about bonds, CDs, and real estate. I put my first IRA money into an 11% CD in '84.