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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (93855)	4/13/2001 5:50:19 PM
From: bill meehan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I agree that many stocks such as the three mentioned are overvalued (although I'm not certain about MSFT given its huge pile of cash and likelihood to use it profitably), as are many others. The model fails to take into account the lousy job analysts do in forecasting earnings and also falls short in that the SPX isn't a fixed basket of stocks. It's very difficult to say now which stocks will have what what weighting three years from now. Using a div disc model to determine fair value for a dynamic index of slow and rapidly growing companies is very dicey business. Hell, it ain't easy to do with one company.