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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gc who wrote (74858)	4/13/2001 1:44:28 PM
From: Robert New	Respond to of 99985

Well there are no guarantee's nor assurances in the markets as you know. The concerns over overcapacity in selected areas such as telecom are real and will take longer to recover in my opinion. However 12 of the past 13 times the Fed has cut rates 3 consecutive times the market has been much higher 12 months out. That was one major difference between the fall from 5100 to 3000 and 3000 to 1639. Last spring the economy was strong after years of growth. However as a result of higher taxes, interest rates rising, and the increase in energy prices the economy slowed and stocks fell quickly. Now, the supply of existing stock has lessened (very few IPO's, dot.coN's going out, and many shareholders have been shaken out). Couple that with lower rates, lower taxes, increased liquidity, and hopefully lower energy prices (we still have the backdrop of low inflation) and down the road we should see an economic recovery. Given that the market looks forward 4 to 6 months I think a strong case can be made to buy equities here on weakness. Again as always time will tell the tale. Good investing to you...