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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (3319)	4/13/2001 2:05:49 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

Sharp, >From you hope for tech springs eternal< It's not hope and it's not eternal, but I do believe that cycles will repeat. They won't repeat with the same timing and amplitude though. Gottfried

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (3319)	4/13/2001 2:11:20 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

I'm in the same camp as CC and Dabum. My gut feel and everything I read supports my notion that tech is bleeding far worse than most people realize. This current rally is a typical bear market rally, nothing but fluff. I agree we'll see CSCO in single digits, along with many others. There is a pile of money to be made if I'm right, and the higher this rally goes the better for that plan. I agree that this rebound sure looks like a bear market rally. Fast and furious. The key is picking the top or waiting for the collapse before getting too short. We had 9 weeks where the majority of the market basically went straight down. To have one week where the trend reverses is not unusual. I personally have capitalized on this reversal with my seed/harvest strategy. The reason I still believe in this type of strategy for a bear market rally is that I am able to pull out my initial investment capital after the quick pop, thus preserving the capital for future use. If I thought the bottom was in and that all was going to be fine going forward, I would be making larger investments and moving more money from cash to equities. I don't think we've seen all the skeletons in the closet that this market has in store for us. Commander's note today is just another piece of information that appears to confirm this view. NG+Oil prices are still very high compared to the 'norm'. The power generation problems facing CA are also starting to surface elsewhere (like NYC). Many of the business people I talk to in Chicago are commenting on how they are seeing a reduction in demand for their products or services. The trend in unemployment is growing. While the inflation picture seems to be under control at this time, the increase that folks are paying for their various forms of energy has dramatically reduced the cash to spend on other things. Debt levels still appear to be too high at the consumer level. While I think there are plenty of reasons the FED should ease, I'm in the camp that believes it takes 6 to 18mos for these rate reductions to work through the economy. It's only been 4 months since the first reduction so we've yet to see the start of the ripple effect.

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (3319)	4/13/2001 3:08:55 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Sharp, Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Jabil a contract manufacturer? What exactly is it that they have an inventory of? I've been picking up high beta techs in my trading account, looking for exactly this type of trading opportunity. However, despite the rally, many of my tech positions are only now getting back to breakeven, as I started my buy binge too early. I've also got 2 IRA's that I manage - mine and my wife's. Mine, I just rolled over from a previous employer, where I accumulated about $200K. I've started buying long-term tech positions on an averaging basis, but have only applied about 15% of the funds to date. I too was/am planning for continued weakness in tech, so I can continue to buy tech dirt cheap and "hit a home run" on the upside and bring retirement all that much closer to reality. Reading this board, that is what many of us appear to be hoping for. However, I am unsettled as of late with this recent rally off the bottom. I read and respect Don Hays, his model says the bottom is in for the DJIA and broad market. He has noted that he does not recommend overweighting the NASDAQ, though. Second, The stock market discounts economic activity 6-9 months in advance. It doesn't matter what is happening in tech now, but the perception of a late 2001/early 2002 pickup could be enough to reverse the downward spiral for tech. Putting these nagging feelings aside, I am planning to bail out of my trading positions. Bear market rallies can be up to 2 months in duration. Given the pain that the Nasdaq has gone through since February, I'm looking for a few more weeks of upside before I unwind my trading positions. I'm targeting the 50-DMA's for my various tech holdings as a sell watchpoint. This gives 30% more upside to most of what I have. Warp

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (3319)	4/13/2001 5:10:02 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Sharp, You can add me to the CC and dabum3 camp. First the current tech cycle is not a normal cycle, it's a bubble of historic proportions. Second we have not had capitulation. Too many strategists were calling for a rally due to the oversold nature of the market. Investor sentiment does not show complete capitulation in investor psychology. That being said, this rally could last as long as several months (I would not be to excited about going short), but I believe we will revisit the old lows at least one more time. I plan to continue to sell into the rally, and not to start buying until the old lows have been tested. Jim