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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (13741)	4/13/2001 3:01:35 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Larry Dudash - RE: (" very close to a BUY SIGNAL !") This is going to be very interesting to watch. I read your e-mail bulletin and noted that CURRENT interest rates reflect only a 5-10% probability of a recession at year from now. This surely reflects the FED's quick switch of easy money in early January which has reversed the yield curve inversion we saw throughout most of year 2000. Throughout most of 2000, that inverted yield curve was predicting a 40-60% chance of recession STARTING during the following four quarters. I keep hearing that the beneficial effect of FED rate reductions won't START to be felt in the economy for 6-12 months. It took 12 months for the first of the FED rate hikes that started July 1999 to be felt. If the economy continues to sink at least through the first half and possibly well into the second half of this year, how can you justify saying the bottom is in. How do you know it's not just an intermediary bottom off of which a counter-trend rally will occur to be following by even lower lows? I must say you do do impressive charts. Sure hope the ultimate low occurs within that box of yours. P :-)