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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9699)	4/13/2001 4:51:55 PM
From: w0z	Respond to of 10921

It's been a steep decline off the top, but that does not mean the time between peak and trough in bookings is going to be shorter. Is that what you mean, by "faster"? Yes, this comment from Lam: "this time, however, orders at Lam have gone from peak to trough bookings in 90 days" I don't know what "trough" means but it could mean close to zero. How much worse can orders can get from there is...probably not much...but of course they could remain flat for months until semi companies need more capacity. We are still on the first part of the "V", and have no idea where or when the inflection point happens. We need to wait till we've seen a couple of consecutive months of increasing bookings (this summer? mid-2002?), before we decide how fast this downturn happened. You are correct...as with most things like this we will only know for certain well after the fact...which will probably be ~6 months after the market recognizes it.