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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7838)	4/13/2001 5:50:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

re: salesmen's forecasts (from a very smart and well informed lady): Message 15436255 I studied stocks for a year, before I started investing in early 1996. From then until January 2001, 99% of my cap gains were from long positions, and 90% of that was LongTerm cap gains. For me, being short and short-term is a tactic, not a philosophy. It's a response to what I see as changed circumstances. There are a lot of Triumphant Nihilists on SI now (like me?). The Law Of Conservation Of Sentiment says that the Triumphant Irrational Exuberance of 1999, must be balanced, sooner or later, by a time of equal and opposite sentiment. Of course, some people are rude stuffed shirts whether they are long or short (like me?). I fully intend on going back to being all long and all longterm. And I might even be smart enough (or lucky enough) to pick approximately the right time to do it.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7838)	4/13/2001 6:00:15 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10934

But taking an effective bearish stance means you have to think like the bear, and after lurking some of their lairs, I wouldn't care to. I think their orientation is a reflection of their philosophy on life, and I refuse to adopt a nihilistic outlook. So I'll remain a singed and cautious optimist, hold my core positions, and write front month covered calls during rallies rather than shorting. So that's the problem! Us optimists do well in Bull markets, but can't navigate a bear market! It make sense. So now we have to learn to take the optimism and pessimism out of our investing and use just conclusions from the facts. Is that possible?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7838)	4/13/2001 6:00:58 PM
From: Lhn5	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

<<Salesmen are always optimistic (if not, they get transferred to accounting), and base their forecasts on a linear projection of recent success>> I would make it a hyperbolic projection. So where do I belong?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7838)	4/13/2001 9:43:36 PM
From: kas1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

OT meta-ramblings I think their orientation is a reflection of their philosophy on life, and I refuse to adopt a nihilistic outlook. Being nihilistic about the market doesn't necessitate being nihilistic about life. Imputing "meaning" and "purpose" to financial markets -- as many do, especially LTBH types -- is just plain silly. But I don't take "nihilistic" to mean perma-bears. Being a perma-bear is, by definition, not nihilistic, because it adheres to a permanent, coherent (allegedly so) ideology. When I say nihilistic about the markets, I mean disbelieving the common conceptions that the stock market was put in place to make you wealthy, or create a new affluent class, or make Progress march forward, or some such thing.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7838)	4/13/2001 10:25:58 PM
From: BDR	Respond to of 10934

<<I think their orientation is a reflection of their philosophy on life, and I refuse to adopt a nihilistic outlook. So I'll remain a singed and cautious optimist, hold my core positions, and write front month covered calls during rallies rather than shorting.>> I agree, both in regards to investing and philosophy. As disappointing as markets (and people) can be occasionally I think there are at least two reasons to maintain an optimistic outlook: 1) The long term trend over recent decades if not centuries in the markets has been upwards 2) Bear markets historically are of shorter duration than bull markets Of course, the permabears are saying (irony of ironies) that "this time it is different".