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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (6425)	4/14/2001 12:09:53 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

Re: Avici investmentadvisor.com

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (6425)	4/14/2001 11:07:07 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

we have gotten a lot of percentage swings that match the ~40% and ~60% changes the wave boys look for. In that spirit, a move of 40% off of the 1620 low gets us to 2250, where we would also have swung by the 50 day ema by a bit. (This 40% pop matches the run from 3050 to 4250 that happened last year starting in May.)We would also be at the resistance level created at the 1/3 low. I think this move is pretty certain to stall at 2150 to 2250. I am going to trim back margin there unless we have tremendous momentum. In the bigger picture, I think we get back to 2550 or higher by the end of summer, so I want to stay fully invested, and add on any 10% pull backs. Any pullbacks of more than 20% should not occur, if we have turned the corner. I have a year end potential high of 3250, but think 2650 to 2900 is a more likely range. In any case, the progress made in the nasdaq the next 3 years should be very impressive. I have 4400 as a potential high 3 years out, with the absolute low at 2650 in 3 years.