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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (94054)	4/14/2001 11:25:47 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 436258

Patron: Re: "I see it playing out as follows: a move to 620 on the SOXX on Monday and Tuesday. INTC comes out after the close Tuesday announcing an earnings miss, reduced forward guidance AND a cut in capex. We get an immediate retracement in the Soxx, with moves lower as the really abysmal guidance the favorite semi stocks provides damps the "bottom is in enthusiasm"." The scenario sounds too perfect for it to unfold in that manner without the market having some expectation along those lines. Re: " Then a wide trading range between 475 and 600 or so for the next 2 months." I see the trading range being notched down even further within two months. Re: "Next quarters warnings should knock the floor out and get things going, as that is clearly incompatible with the "things can't get worse" scenario...." I think the duration of the decline is more at issue than the magnitude of the decline in business. I don't see a smap back here. The trend is your friend in this sector and when it turns down it tends to stay that way for much longer than anyone thought at the outset. That gets you to the slow bleed scenario. Re: " I agree, no reason to buy untill these stocks at LEAST reach '96 trough levels on price/sales (I think they'll overshoot on the underside, but I might start to buy at those levels)." Don't know about that. Could get us to 98 valuation metrics anyway. Don't want to buy them as keepers now. Best to wait until autumn at least to see the balance sheet bleed at the pricing available. Re: " Eventually the "normal" SOXX/IXIC relationship will be reestablished." I don't see it any other way unless this time it is different and that argument clearly has not worked recently. Maybe the IXIC catches up on the upside but that seems to be a low probabliity event.