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To: Vitas who wrote (94072)	4/14/2001 12:41:57 PM
From: Ralph W.	Respond to of 436258

I find it interesting that Russell, who has certainly demonstrated staying power (and for good reason), gives voice to things that others on this thread have mentioned often enough. This thread, despite its tendency for the profane, offers valuable nuggets to the relatively uninitiated for one willing to cull through the noise. It's possible that there are even more valuable threads on SI, but this one will certainly do. The trick for those who want to learn, who want to preserve their assets, is to strive for objectivity - no easy task when emotion interferes. You did well by posting his interview. R

To: Vitas who wrote (94072)	4/14/2001 1:10:35 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

Nice read, Vitas! This part is my favorite: Q: Can Dow Theory predict the duration and extent of a major bear decline? A: No. But over many years, I've observed some very useful clues. First, every primary bear market has wiped out at least half the gains of the preceding bull market. Let's say the late bull began at 1000 in 1982 and ran to 11,700 last year. That's a gain of 10,700 points. Half of that is 5350. Deduct 5350 from 11,700 and you get 6350, which could be the minimum level to which the DJIA drops. Q: That's your best-case scenario? A: It could be. But things also could get much worse. At other major bear-market bottoms, the Industrials have tended to sell at 10 times earnings and yield 6%. We saw a 10% yield in 1932, but that was a historic extreme. In 1949, in 1974 and again in 1982, the yield at the bottom was about 6%. Assuming current dividends on the DJIA components hold up, which they probably won't, the index could fall to between 3000 and 4000. Q: In what time frame? A: Bear markets usually last about 25%-33% as long as the preceding bull market. Assuming the recent bull market ran from a low in 1982 to a peak in 1999; we're talking 17-18 years. By this measure, I expect the decline to last at least four or five years, until 2003 or 2005. One possible difference this time is the speed at which Nasdaq has plunged. If the Dow picks up momentum on the downside, its bottom could arrive sooner than 2003 6350 on the DOWn? 300 on the S&P... I take it back. Tice isn't Luc's dad...this guy is!<G>

To: Vitas who wrote (94072)	4/14/2001 1:38:39 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Richard Russell sounds like he isn't even in the market for the next 5 years and hasn't been for years. He admits there may be "mini" rallies even in his worst-case scenario, but mini in his mind could mean weeks and months at a time so maybe 50% moves. He frankly has no idea how long any bear market might last nor if it's already over. And if he were so sure of himself he'd be shorting longterm instead of going to T-bills and making almost nothing. More timid than my grandmother and also doesn't mention the fact that the "dangerous" Naz just slid 80% and some stocks are down more than 98%. Doesn't that count for anything to this guy? Jeez. Also he states everyone is so bullish. BS. Most have bailed this market, avoided risk or gone short recently and that avoidance of risk or shorting has gotten just as climactic and overdone as the buying was last year. He also doesn't account for what may be 5-6 rate cuts culminating in cheaply wiping out all that terrible debt he's talking about. We can get 1.9% per year credit card offers now for switching balances. That's beneath the money market. Corporations in debt may soon be able to re-structure theirs at around 3.5%. Also what about companies that have no debt just plenty of cash? Are they sells too? And what about defensive issues and energy? And are Baby Bells at 11 PE dangerous and over valued? This guy sounds like he's a historian who never takes any risk, therefore never gains. Okay he never loses either but he might as well not be in the market at all, much less commenting on it. Frankly I think he could be dangerous to anyone trying to make money in the market. He basically has nothing to say except beware and stay on the sidelines. But most people won't agree. Staying on the sidelines means 4% on your money when on VZ or SBC alone you can make 3% dividends and buy them low here. Or MO and other Blue CHips even more of a dividend. At least he should say BA is a nice place to be with defence spending going up. Or energy stocks. But no, NOTHING looks good to this guy. Fugettabouthim.

To: Vitas who wrote (94072)	4/15/2001 2:51:04 PM
From: Yaacov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Vitas . I read Barron's for years, and lately they are full of doom and gloom! Mr.Richard Russell has down-graded the most powerful economy in the world. He must know more than all the analysts, the economists, and the Feds!! What is the source of his infinite knowledge, I wonder.!! I suggest we take them cum gran salis. I have 70% or my money in bonds (USD and Euro) and 30% in the US and Swiss equity markets, but I doubt if DOW goes back to 2500!!! ggg