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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5778)	4/14/2001 10:11:55 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 52237

By L3_Aka_L3 on Saturday, April 14, 2001 - 05:18 am: Edit D&C - Top 25 weightings of the NDX... MSFT 9.88 INTC 5.81 QCOM 4.16 CSCO 4.01 ORCL 3.24 VSTR 2.48 JDSU 2.34 DELL 2.28 AMGN 2.25 VRTS 2.1 SUNW 2.07 WCOM 1.81 AMAT 1.72 CIEN 1.7 SEBL 1.65 CMCSK 1.63 XLNX 1.53 LLTC 1.5 MXIM 1.46 ALTR 1.32 NXTL 1.28 CHKP 1.26 GMST 1.2 PAYX 1.18 CEFT 1.08 They list them alphabetically so I crunch them through excel to rank them for posting. The raw data is here and is current as of the 11th of this month.... dynamic.nasdaq-amex.com Just scroll down the page till you see the ranking list. ================================================= From: Les Horowitz Friday, Apr 13, 2001 12:54 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74914 growing number of delistings - this should help the new lows list shrink some more siliconvalley.com www0.mercurycenter.com ================================================ Les originally posted the link but a good post showing nothing has really changed in Semi land.... Sutro & Co. downgraded AMAT along with K by: JGrimme (38/M/Bloomington, MN) 04/08/98 01:28 pm EDT Msg: 3158 of 70052 My broker just sent me this: -- O3: SEMICONDUCTOR EQPMT INDUS;AMAT,KLAC,LRCX,NVLS DOWNGRADED TO UNDERPERFRM; -- Sutro & Co. (Jerry Fleming 415-445-8550) ADEX AMAT KLAC SUTRO & COMPANY INCORPORATED April 8, 1998 Jerry Fleming 415-445-8550 Kesha Martin 415-445-8528 The Semiconductor Equipment Industry Group Unattractive Based on Order Cycle, Valuation Analysis; Applied Materials, KLA, Lam, Novellus Downgraded to Underperform from Hold The last three months have seen numerous semiconductor and equipment companies preannounce disappointing results or give guidance for weaker results in the upcoming quarter or two. The consensus reaction to much of this news has been "we're cutting our estimates; yes, results may get worse, but most of the bad news is out, expectations are low and this is a group that we want to own for the long haul". As a result of a significant number of analysts upgrading their investment ratings, the four major front-end semiconductor equipment stocks we follow appreciated by an average of 30% from their early-January lows through the end of the first quarter. We disagree with this consensus view and believe that the equipment spending downturn will be steep and more prolonged than the late-1996, early-1997 dip. We expect industry orders to fall by as much as 30%-35% by this summer with market softness expected to continue into early 1999. Although we are strong believers in the equipment industry's long-term growth potential, it is our opinion that most major semiconductor equipment issues have significant near-term risk. Consequently, we are cutting our ratings on Applied Materials, KLA Instruments, Lam Research and Novellus Systems to Underperform from Hold. Our ratings for ADE Corp. (Hold), Nanometrics (Accumulate) and Veeco Instruments (Hold) are unchanged. In recent weeks, it has become apparent that U.S. microprocessor makers are experiencing a significant margin squeeze and may reduce their previously announced capital spending plans. This follows earlier reductions in Korean and Japanese spending caused by Asian economic problems and weak DRAM prices. We are also concerned about the Taiwanese spending outlook following three years of unsustainably high capital outlays. Our revised forecast calling for a 15% reduction in equipment spending carries an implicit 30%-35% decline in the rate of spending from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third quarter of this year. Historically, equipment stock prices have not been able to sustain a rally while growth is decelerating. This analysis implies that investors should wait another three to six months before reinvesting in this sector. (Some more crap) messages.yahoo.com ============================================== By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 8:38 AM ET Apr 13, 2001 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks of unsold goods dropped for the first time in more than two years, a welcome sign to an economy overburdened with supply. Total sales of U.S. businesses fell 0.3 percent during February while their inventories dropped 0.2 percent, the biggest drop in nearly five years, the Commerce Department said Friday. The inventory-to-sales remained at a two-year high of 1.37. As the economy has cooled over the past year, inventories of unsold goods have piled up at factories, warehouses and stores. Until those stocks are worked down, manufacturers won't see much demand for new production. Federal Reserve officials said after their last policy meeting nearly four weeks ago they believed the process of inventory clearing was well underway. The February report confirms some progress, but notes that inventory levels were 4.7 percent higher than in February 2000. Inventories of durable goods - those designed to last three years or more - remained 5 percent higher than a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.68 compared with 1.58 a year earlier. Durable inventories fell 0.5 percent in February, including a 1.1 percent decline at retailers, where the overhang is largest. Auto dealers lost 1.5 percent of their overstocks, but their inventories remain 9.4 percent higher than a year earlier. Inventories of nondurables goods rose 0.2 percent in February, despite a 0.3 percent decline at factories. By sector, manufacturing inventories fell 0.1 percent in February to bring stocks 4 percent higher than in February 2000. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.36. Wholesale inventories fell 0.1 percent in February to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.29. Retail inventories fell 0.4 percent to a level 5.9 percent higher than a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.45. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.