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To: dale_laroy who wrote (35735)	4/14/2001 4:51:12 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

dale: Just got back from Chapters (a popular Toronto bookstore) to read your response...Rather than addressing our diffrences point by point, I'd defer to Alan Abelson and Richard Russell in the latest Barrons...Suffice it to say that their opinions support with compelling rationale that anyone who sees the Nasdaq low of 2 weeks ago as the bottom is suffering from optical illusion... What if: INTC's shipments are down 25% sequentially? What if: INTC's gross margins are down 15% sequentially? What if: INTC has to write down $200 milion in its capital investment's activities as opposed to contributing $700 million as in Q4? What if: Q1 is just the first phase in a series of INTC quarters of declining trend? and all that is without getting into CSCO, NT etc whose customers are demanding 40% price discounts if further purchases are to be made... Two phases in a decline of any company's fortunes: First phase is declining shipments. Second phase is declining margins...According to some, INTC is in the early stages of phase 2...If true, the later phases will most certainly usher in INTC quarterly losses, if in fact, INTC is able to avoid same in Q1??? For certain, INTC's Q1 is looking at year/year revenue declines of a minimum of 10% and Y/Y eps declines of 25%...I, for one, would not count on this being a one quarter phenomenon but may usher in a spate of INTC negative quarterly trends for the foreseeable future!!! INTC's Y2000 revenues of $33.735 billion and Y2000 eps of $1.515 are the frame of reference for current equity pricing of $28.00...If Q1 Y2001 (i.e optimistically $8 billion in revenues and $0.20 in eps) is the high water mark for the year, INTC is looking at Y2001 revenues of $25 billion and a negative eps or a revenue decline of over 25% and an infinite eps decline...Current price of $28 doesn't come anywhere near close to factoring in such a calamity at INTC...$10.00 might!!! The all too realistic possibility of negative growth and negative earnings in Y2001 has not yet dawned on the INTC investing fraternity at $28...It just might after Tuesday!!! and if it does an INTC at $17 is not unrealistic, imho!!!