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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geode00 who wrote (13767)	4/14/2001 2:55:20 PM
From: geode00	Respond to of 42834

Oh yes, I don't think Bob's advice is the worst out there. There are many who are worse as there are many who are much, much better. Bob, however, touts the fact that he's brilliant. By censoring this bulletin boards, his show and his newsletter (from time to time) and keeping his really bad advice under wraps. If he's so proud of what he's done (as some here think he should be) then why doesn't he put ALL of his picks into his model portfolios and submit those to Hulbert and other media? Could it be that he isn't proud of what he's done and that showing everything that he's advised would cause a big drop in his sales? HMMMMMMMMM. Could be.

To: geode00 who wrote (13767)	4/14/2001 8:17:27 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

"Where in the world are you getting these numbers from? Are you using his portfolio allocations or are you using your own?" I don't understand what you're confused about. From what he said in his post, he used Brinker's allocations, except that for Portfolio 1A he took half the cash in Portfolio 1 and put it into QQQ on 10/12/00, and for Portfolio 2A he put 30% in QQQ. "Try using the 60% down (at 33) and add that into your Portfolio 1A. That would make it down 25%." If QQQ were still at 33, that would be a valid comparison. "Are you attempting to prove that Bob's advice isn't the absolutely worst out there?" I don't know what Big Shoulders is attempting to do, but what he actually did do was provide an honest comparison to buy-and-hold. "Want to add in the TEFQX?" If you want to add in a 5% allocation to TEFQX, then you could subtract about 4%. I'm not sure how fair that would be though, since there were 20 different funds listed in the January 2000 Marketimer, and TEFQX is only one of them. A fairer way to do it would be to assume an equal allocation in each fund that he recommends, which would mean that TEFQX would be 1/20th of the 40% that was in equities as of January 2000. I don't have time to run the spreadsheet, but if you divide 0.40 by 20 and multiply by the 80% that TEFQX is down, it is clear that TEFQX would contribute 1.6 percentage points of loss on the total portfolio. That's a pretty good demonstration of the benefits of diversification, BTW. "You could always add the big trips (since last year) for LU and MSFT." A 4% allocation in MSFT would have contributed 1.8% in loss to the portfolio. LU was not in the newsletter at that time. "Then, why not compare them to the effect of going to cash AS HE SAID HE WOULD if and when he saw a vicious bear coming. Let's use HIS own words shall we?" A 100% allocation to a money market fund would be up about 7 or 8% by now, so that should provide the comparison you're looking for.