Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FrozenZ who wrote (3026)	4/14/2001 7:28:12 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

At its recent 1166, the S&P yielded about 1.2%. Were its yield to quadruple to 4.8% - and its been higher that that in the past - the S&P would drop to about 300. Interestingly, the S&P now trades at over three times revenues, six times book value and 75 times dividends. These figures are well above peaks seen at previous bull-market tops, and illustrate just how overvalued the S&P 500 is now!!!!!! Dick Russell - Dow Theory Letters

To: FrozenZ who wrote (3026)	4/15/2001 11:16:34 AM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

So Tradermike, when would you get back into this market, even just for a trade? It seems like you previously would consider it if the Nasdaq broke out above 2000. Or is it a matter of just needing to see the overall economic picture improve. With Greenspend cranking up the money supply, I thought eventually some of it would end up in equities. Valuations are still high, but a lot of these companies did secondary offerings and are sitting on more cash than their market caps... I could name a few including some that are profitable... just in industries with murky outlooks ie. telecom types. I wouldn't weigh myself to the long side until the Nasdaq and S&P 500 get above their 150 day moving averages - that will take months and that is if the market has really bottomed last week - which I doubt. I'd look for individual stocks consolidating on or above that average and then about to break out. As for bottoming - I doubt it. Internut and semiconductor stocks are not going to lead the beginnings of a bull market. Historically money first goes into more conservative sectors first which are more interest rate sensitive and are effected by the business cycle - construction, retailers etc. Retailers took it in the chin last week as the consumer confidence numbers came out and hit new lows. Retail sales also dropped. According to Greenspan several weeks ago that would be a sign we are entering a recession. Recession or not - retail stocks need to go up before the economy recovers. We are also not at the end of the semiconductor slump. It has typically been prone to 3 year long downturns - but people expect this one to last a few months which is unrealistic. There is no reason to think that this is anything but a bear market rally. But I trade by charts - not my opinions of the economy or some analyst bozo on the teletube. I learned most of my trading style from the Stan Weinstein book Secrets to Profiting in Bull & Bear markets (I believe that is the title). It is worth reading - and if you go by those strategies you would not buy in here. You'd wait until things stabilize. What is the upside here? 10%? 20% if you are luckiny and downside another 50%.