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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnG who wrote (9821)	4/14/2001 7:25:47 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196649

deleted

To: JohnG who wrote (9821)	4/14/2001 7:35:05 PM
From: quartersawyer	Respond to of 196649

John-- according to Galvin and Ollila, the operators are going to subsidize 7 million of their handsets within 9 months, after having paid for the upgrade. This will be an immediate washout... if that article didn't miss a decimal place. Even if they put GPRS on the 3G spectrum to actually let people on, in the attempt to wait out 3G for some form of interoperable OFDM, the costs to the operator make no comparative or competitive sense. They have a vision of millions of extravagant business users paying for the whole system, as if there's no alternative. Scrooge bosses will say "are there no faxes?? Are there no PC's?" I'm sure we'll hear about economies of scale and prices coming down, but this start smells familiar and bad.

To: JohnG who wrote (9821)	4/14/2001 9:27:12 PM
From: grinder965	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196649

John, The euros are literally between a rock and a hard place. The cost figures that Caxton noted come from the Q's White Paper. The actual cost to provide gprs data services should be less than that cited because the estimate ($.41) includes the cost to build a new system which will not be the case (Nor will it be the case for those that upgrade from existing cdma systems to 1x like Sprint and VZ whose initial rates will also be lower) Still most of the cost is a result of low throughput thus; the euros cost will be very high. Frankly I don't see how they will be able to make it profitable. Build gprs and they will come is not going to work for the gsm guild in euroland or anywhere else for that matter. The alternative is to step-up the timing of their migration plans for wcdma. But here again there are lots of roadblocks like finalizing a standard, interoperability testing and, no cash to help pay for the infra buildout due to last years binge on spectrum. Incidently when you look at the estimates of cost for the various technologies developed by the Q in their White Paper, I don't believe they include the cost of spectrum. So the estimate of cost to deliver wcdma ($.069) in europe is going to be much greater for 3G than that cited when you factor in amortizing the cost of spectrum. Add the fact that they have very high penetration rates for voice in europe and you've got a recipe for very low growth....in short a disaster in the making. They have no choice but to try and get the european consumer and business customer to ante up and pay very high rates for data service and I don't see it happening. All in all they are in deep kimshee <LOL>

To: JohnG who wrote (9821)	4/14/2001 9:45:46 PM
From: grinder965	Respond to of 196649

BTW my theory as to the reason nok is all of sudden including throwing gobs of vendor financing into their recent wdcma infra deals has to do placating a very angry operator community who feels they been misled. The Q could be much closer to breaching the wall of fortress europe (perhaps "house of cards" is a better term) than many think. Be that as it may, it's not a prerequisite for dominating the wireless world for the next decade like say China is.