Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (9708)	4/14/2001 8:30:02 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re: where the SOX goes short/medium term: We are now just below 600 on the SOX. I very much doubt we can take out 750 on the SOX, which is the January top, and also the 200D moving average. The January top was 50% above the previous lows. A similar % move this time, off the 453 low, would bring us to 680. So, if we reach 700, I'll be loaded up on puts on semis and semi-equips, and out of all my long positions, as I think the odds of going much higher than that are slight. So, I bought a 1/3 position yesterday at the close (NVLS puts), and sold my csco calls. Almost sold my txn calls at the close yesterday, probably will sell on monday. I'll add another 1/3 position in puts if the SOX reaches 650, and the final third at 700. Then wait till the stocks retest recent lows. Put candidates: amat at 50 nvls at 48 txn at 36 mu at any price jnpr wherever it opens on monday ntap at 20

To: $Mogul who wrote (9708)	4/14/2001 10:08:05 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I see the SOX at mid to high 300's to happen in 2001. That is wishful thinking on your part. If you look at the 16 stocks that make up the sox and just took the big cap names.. (INTC, LSI, AMD, AMAT) ... the assumption would be a 50% reduction from current prices. Keep in mind that the smaller cap stocks in the Sox would have to fall about 75% more from where they are now, to achieve a high 300 SOX. Because the sox is a basket of just 16 stocks, it would take something like the bankruptcy of AMD, LSI, and AMD for these levels to be achieved. At these prices for the sox I would feel a safer with a long position than a short one. Jerome