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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yaacov who wrote (132395)	4/15/2001 2:11:29 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Ted, he was on cnbc in Spring of 2000, saying he had a 200 dollar target on INTC! Then I heard that he on CNBC he had said INTC will be under pressure and he down-graded the stock and INTC fell to $22.00 plus!! This I didn't watch but I heard on CNBC after he was interviewed. He was wrong when the with 12 months target of 200 and he is probably wrong again. Why not? First, Yaacov, calling a price target is one of the stupidest things an analyst does. It is difficult enough to predict a stock's price a month from now let alone 6 mos to a year down the road. Secondly, the best of the analysts, except for J. Josephs, missed the top of the semi cycle......partly because most cycles are 2-3 years long and mostly because Intel's own Barrett said Intel could not produce enough parts to meet demand. Now Intel is the bellweather, the 1K gorilla; whatever its experiencing is probably true for the PC and communications sector as a whole. Nonetheless, if an analyst was smart enough to check the supply channels, they probably would have found them full trying to meet demand for Intel...and the end channels?...probably full as well which makes sense.....everyone's gearing up for Xmas. Who knew that Intel's of the world were stockpiling in anticipation of demand notching up...demand that had fallen off a cliff. Intel didn't tell us it was stockpiling..it said it was experiencing component shortages. Out of that experience, I have learned that CEOs know less than the analysts; to whit, both Chambers of CSCO and Barrett of Intel missed the end of the cycle badly; that most of the time, the best analysts can only give a vague sense of direction and the rest are useless. Thirdly, that a semi cycle can change at a moment's notice and always be en garde. Frankly, I think your anger is misdirected and that Barrett should be the target. At the present time, I think he is one of the worst of the CEO's of major corporation. But what do I know. ;~)) ted